Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the preservation of fire.—Gustav Mahler

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

National Conference Of State Legislatures: Number Of State Legislative Seats Held By Each Party

As of November 7, 2016 (pre-election), the Ds held 3,163 state legislative seats across the 50 states, and the Rs held 4,118 seats.

As of November 10, 2016 (post-election), the Ds hold 3,135 state legislative seats across the 50 states, and the Rs hold 4,162 seats.

The Ds lost 28 seats nationally. 
The Rs picked up 44 seats.

[Seats held by third-parties and independents or on a non-partisan basis are not included.]
[Some seats are yet to be determined.]

Bottom line: the Rs picked up over 40 state legislative seats in 2016. 

The shift to the Rs represents just over 1/2 of 1% of all state legislative seats (i.e., (44) / (7,297)). Interesting, 12 House state legislative chambers and 2 Senate state legislative chambers are controlled by 5 or fewer seats. Small changes in seat distribution can have highly significant effects. 

Seth

See generally http://www.ncsl.org. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman on Irish TV & Radio, The New Reform Club (Nov. 11, 2016, 11:10 AM). [here] 





Monday, November 14, 2016

Trump's Team of Rivals

My first reaction to Pres-elect Trump giving "alt-right" [for lack of a better term] Breitbart boss Steve Bannon a top slot—even if more symbolic than substantive—was that he's determined not to let his right flank slip, and indeed turn and rend him.

Jimmy Carter's biggest political failure was losing control of his own party, and as Douglas Brinkley fascinatingly chronicles here,* it was Carter's disaffected left flank that did him in more than Ronald Reagan.

I don't know if Trump [or his advisors] learned from history, but so far at least he just avoided a major snare—losing your own side without whom you cannot hope to lead or govern. That and hiring GOP chair Priebus as Chief of Staff—Reince knows all the players: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
___________
*"Tales of Carter's contempt for and ineptitude at politicking were legion on Capitol Hill throughout his term in office. "When it came to the politics of Washington, D.C., he never really understood how the system worked," Tip O'Neill wrote in his memoirs. "And although this was out of character for Jimmy Carter, he didn't want to learn about it either." In fact, O'Neill couldn't escape the feeling that Carter was working against fellow Democrats--including the Speaker himself. "Once, when the city of Boston applied for a government grant for some roads, I called the Carter people to try to speed it along," O'Neill wrote. "Instead of assisting me, however, they did everything possible to block my way."

Other perceived slights were more subtle..."

Friday, November 11, 2016

Seth Barrett Tillman on Irish TV & Radio

Prime Time, RTÉ (Nov. 10, 2016, 9:00 PM) (interviewer, guest, and Tillman), http://tinyurl.com/jhw6jhd; 

The Pat Kenny Tonight Show, TV3 (Nov. 9, 2016, 9:30 PM) (panellist), http://tinyurl.com/zp7ovku, https://www.tv3.ie/3player/show/1032; and, 



Cormac Ó hEadhra, The Late Debate: U.S. Election Night, RTÉ Radio 1 (Nov. 8, 2016, 9:00 PM) (panellist), http://tinyurl.com/jy3ngp4. 

Seth

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, Staff of the Great Northern Railway who fell in World War I and World War II, The New Reform Club (Nov. 11, 2016, 9:29 AM). [here] 



Staff of the Great Northern Railway (Ireland) who fell in World War I and World War II

Below is a photograph of a plaque in Connolly Station: the primary railway station in Dublin, Ireland. 

I thought it a fitting image for Veterans Day / Armistice Day. It is a side of Ireland that is little known. 

It reads: "In memory of the following members of the Staff of the Great Northern Railway (Ireland) who laid down their lives for their Country in the Great War, 1914-1919 <names> Also the Following who made the Supreme Sacrifice in the Second World War. 1939-1945 <names>". 

On two prior occasions, I have written on these issues: 

Seth Barrett Tillman, Ireland and World War II, The New Reform Club (Sept. 19, 2016, 2:34 PM), http://tinyurl.com/jjwqujq; and, 

Glenn Reynolds, This Doesn’t Reflect Well on Ireland: Why Irish Soldiers Who Fought Hitler Hide Their Medals: An Update from Seth Barrett Tillman, Instapundit (Jan. 2, 2012, 6:16 PM), http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/134529. 

Seth

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, A Summary of the 2016 Governors Races, State Legislative Races, and State-level Death Penalty Referenda, The New Reform Club (Nov. 11, 2016, 5:15 AM). [here]






A Summary of the 2016 Governors Races, State Legislative Races, and State-level Death Penalty Referenda


State and local races show some significant net gains by the Republican Party, notwithstanding the occasional Democratic Party pickup. There were 12 governors races. 8 left the incumbent or the incumbent's party in power. These states included: Delaware, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and West Virginia. The Republicans picked up Missouri, a very significant bellweather [spelling corrected!] state, and also Vermont and New Hampshire, illustrating that the Republican Party continues to enjoy some significant support in New England. North Carolina is yet to be decided. If the Democrat emerges the victor, it will be a significant Democratic Party pickup in the South. 

As to state houses, the National Conference of State Legislatures reports:

Three chambers switched from Democratic to Republican control: Kentucky House, Iowa Senate, and Minnesota Senate.

Four chambers switched from Republican to Democratic control: New Mexico House, Nevada Assembly, Nevada Senate, and Washington Senate (albeit, Republicans, however, will have functional control as one Democrat will caucus with the Republicans).

The Connecticut Senate, which had been under Democratic Party control, will be tied. And the NY Senate, which also had been under Democratic Party control, is yet to be decided, as one seat remains contested.

See http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/2016-pre-and-post-election-state-legislative-control.aspx. In total, the Republicans had some net gains, but not dramatic gains. 

In terms of state legislative seats, after the 2014 election the Ds held 3,172 seats, and the Rs held 4,124 seats: an R advantage of 952 seats. We do not yet know if the Rs expanded on their 952 seat lead, or if it contracted. That will be clarified later today, by Monday, or over the course of the next few business days.

In 2016, there were 154 referenda** at the state level. Several dealt with the death penalty. For example, California voters rejected a proposal to abolish the death penalty, and in a separate vote appear to have passed a proposal to speed up the pace of executions, but the results are not yet official. Nebraska voters restored the death penalty, after the legislature had passed a bill to end the procedure. And Oklahoma voters passed an amendment to the state constitution stating that the procedure was not “cruel and unusual punishment.” The latter passed 2-to-1. See http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/ballot-measures-database.aspx.


Seth 

**I usually use Atlantic Archipelago spelling and usage. In Ireland, the plural for “referendum” is “referendums.” Perhaps in the future I could write this way, but today, I cannot bring myself to do it. 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, The Supreme Court Temptation, The New Reform Club (Nov. 9, 2016, 8:59 AM). [Here] 





Wednesday, November 09, 2016

The Supreme Court Temptation

Making a nomination to the Supreme Court to fill the Scalia seat is easy, and it will permit Trump to control the news cycle. Trump will be tempted to make this his first substantial order of business, but it is a temptation to which the future president ought not succumb, even if he risks losing some political popularity while delaying the eventual nomination.

Why should Trump delay? Because to make this nomination his first order of business is to break faith with those who elected him. Those who elected him do not trust the federal courts, and they do not believe that a change in personnel will make it a source of succour for their problems.

Moreover, for Trump’s voters, this election was not about the past: it was not about abortion, affirmative action, gun rights, states rights, etc, etc. That past is dead. This election was about something else, about building a new and different future, and what those voters want are new Executive Branch policies and concrete proposed bills surrounding today’s one key issue: immigration and border control policies focusing exclusively on the interests of America’s citizens. It is that simple, and it was always that simple.

Once Trump issues some concrete executive orders and proposed bills, then he can turn to the lesser business of the Supreme Court of the United States and also to the interests of the academic elites, transnational bureaucrats, and other professional policy wonks (few of which supported him) who remain immersed in the world that is now gone.


Seth 

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

Seth Barrett Tillman, The Supreme Court Temptation, The New Reform Club (Nov. 9, 2016, 8:59 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2016/11/the-supreme-court-temptation.html>. 

Seth Barrett Tillman, The Undecideds, The New Reform Club (Nov. 7, 2016, 7:45 AM). [here]  



Monday, November 07, 2016

The Undecideds


General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinIBD/TIPP TrackingClinton 41, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinBloombergClinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2Clinton +3


In the first poll above, with Trump at +2%, 8% are undecided, in the second poll, with Clinton at +3%, 9%, are undecided.

For who will the undecideds vote? Is there a shy Tory/Wilder effect, or are enough Democratic votes already locked up, that even if there is a Wilder effect, it will be negated by the Democrats' better ground game?

Seth

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, Why the Anti-Trump Commentariat are not Trusted, The New Reform Club (Nov. 7, 2016, 4:43 AM). [here]

Why the Anti-Trump Commentariat are not Trusted



A Response to Professor David Post, I’m, with her (and with Orin), too, The Volokh Conspiracy (Nov. 6, 2016, 12:24 PM), http://tinyurl.com/hh65hfe

I did not know when I came home [to the UK] from Australia in September 1939 whether these islands could defend themselves against the German armies and air-fleets. To be [morally] impelled to fight for one’s country it is not necessary to be certain that one’s country is going to win.
            ….
At the beginning [of this address] I refused to define patriotism; but now at the end I venture it. Patriotism is to have a nation to die for, and to be glad to die for it—all the days of one’s life.
—E.P., Address On Patriotism, St. Lawrence Jewry, London (1977).

A significant part of the commentariat, including the legal professoriate, has again and again stated, with a regularity that belies conviction, that the American public’s choice, the choice between Trump and Clinton, is not a choice, not in the sense of a normal election, but a choice in which one is morally or prudentially impelled to choose Clinton because Trump poses an existential threat to the country. Their position is that to vote for Trump is to put the nation and its people at a profound risk approaching certainty. Why? Because Trump will be dictator-strongman of sorts: one election, one time. Or because Trump will plunge the nation into destructive wars. Or because Trump will wreck the fabric of the economy. Or because Trump will destroy the constitutional order and the rule of law.

I am not going to comment on the substance of the anti-Trump message. You have heard it all before, and you have or will very soon make up your own minds whether Trump or Clinton deserves your vote. What I will say here is that the messengers of the anti-Trump message are not believable because their actions (or, more accurately, the lack thereof) do not accord with their message. Moreover, because these messengers are not believable, on balance, I suspect they are helping Trump, not Clinton.

Let me explain. If you have a country (a country you are attached to, a home, as opposed to a mere place of residence), and if you value its future and its people’s future, and if you believe that country faces an existential threat, then you will do something significant and concrete for your country to help it avoid that existential threat (or, at least, to minimize its untoward consequences). What you do not do is to merely offer advice and opinion. Offering advice and opinion is what you do in a normal election when your party faces a loyal opposition: i.e., one having merely different aims and policies. If all your actions accord with what one does in a normal election, then those who hear your opinion cannot be expected to believe your message: that one of the two democratic alternatives poses an existential threat to the country. In Professor David Post’s recent blog post on The Volokh Conspiracy, all he offers is opinion and advice. I doubt there are many whose positions or vote will be affected by what Professor Post has to say, except for a few who will find the advice insincere** and for that reason, they just might vote for Trump.

I recently posed a query on Conlawprof along these lines. I noted that many see Trump as posing an existential threat. I asked what have these anti-Trumpers actually have done, other than post opinion and advice on Conlawprof? The answers were staggering. One person responded offline that he rejiggered his personal portfolio; one responded online that he did the same. And one suggested that it would be imprudent to do more than that, as Clinton was leading in the polls and should Trump prevail or should a close race be contested, he and others would then volunteer to help Clinton in litigation. I suggest that all this is too little and too late. If you believe that Trump poses an existential threat to our country, then there are things you could do now (which are not only needed but will also have the added benefit of making your opinions appear sincere). What could you do? You could donate all, a half, a third, a quarter, or even a tenth of your net worth, or your liquid assets, or your current (post-tax) salary. In other words, you could do something that indicates your genuinely held belief in regard to the purported Trump threat and your willingness to take on some meaningful and significant personal and shared sacrifice to meet that threat. If you have little, you could volunteer all your time to Clinton’s campaign: you could take temporary leave from your employment, or use your vacation time, or just use all your waking hours outside of work to help Clinton. Again, you could do something that indicates your genuinely held belief in regard to the purported Trump threat and your willingness to take on some meaningful and significant personal and shared sacrifice to meet that threat. But if you don’t do things like this and don’t take actions illustrative of some significant personal sacrifice, then many who think the choice between Clinton and Trump is a regular normal election-time choice, will hear your opinion as insincere, or, worse, that you don’t really have a country.

I did receive one response to my Conlawprof post that bears repeating. One respondent wrote it would be irrational to make a significant personal monetary sacrifice along the lines I suggested because it is doubtful whether such a sacrifice would be determinative. What an interesting rule of action that would be if generalized to the public at large. I volunteer to do nothing—notwithstanding my country’s facing an existential threat—unless I have a guarantee that my side will prevail. If that is the way most people think, then, indeed, the country’s future is miserable.

After the Brexit referendum, Frank Field, a long serving Labour MP, explained why Vote Leave eked out a majority. Too many in the elite told ordinary voters how they must vote and that the alternative was madness, chaos, and anarchy. Adults just don’t take kindly to being told what they must do in a democratic election, particularly from those who are going about their lives just as they always seem to do. The elite’s strategy backfired, or at the very best, it convinced no one. The same may happen in the United States. And if it does, we will know who is responsible for the result.

Our election is on November 8. Three days later is Veterans Day, or what in some of the other Allied countries is known as Remembrance Day, Poppy Day, or Armistice Day. For a country to survive, much less prosper (and I speak in more than the mere financial sense), it must have citizens who—if they believe the country at real risk—will do more than write a blog post addressed to their grandchildren. See Professor David Post, I’m, with her (and with Orin), too, The Volokh Conspiracy (Nov. 6, 2016, 12:24 PM), http://tinyurl.com/hh65hfe (“I offer this for my grandchildren, just so they’ll know, when they grow up, that I did what I could.”). Patriots and citizens would do more, much more.

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved and were loved, and now we lie,
In Flanders fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.

—John McCrae


[**To be sure, I do not suggest that the advice is insincere, only that it is likely to be seen that way.]

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman )


My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, The Case of the Ship Money, R v Hampden 3 State Trials 381 (1640), and its relevance today, The New Reform Club (Nov. 6, 2016, 7:30 AM). [here]



Sunday, November 06, 2016

The Case of the Ship Money, R v Hampden 3 State Trials 381 (1640), and its relevance today

In The Ship Money Case [R v Hampden, 3 State Trials 825 (1637), superseded by Act Declaring the Illegality of Ship-Money, Aug. 7, 1641, 17 Charles I, chapter 14], a bare majority of the judges of the Court of Exchequer Chamber voted for the Crown and against Hampden, the tax payer, who objected to being forced to pay purported taxes absent parliamentary consent.

7 of the 12 judges supported the King. 2 of the 7 died shortly thereafter. In regard to the 5 remaining judges who supported the King, the House of Commons impeached 3 and disabled 2 from continuing as judges.

More recently, the High Court decided Miller v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [November 3, 2016] EWHC 2768 (Admin) (Thomas, LCJ; Etherton, MR; and Sales, LJ) (available here).

100 years from now which will be recognized as the more odious decision? Hampden or Miller? Hampden merely opposed Parliament; Miller opposed a national popular referendum. 

Seth

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

My prior post: Seth Barrett Tillman, Justice Thomas’ Worst Decision: Brexit, The New Reform Club (Nov. 3, 2016, 1:21 PM). [here] 



Friday, November 04, 2016

The real Kulturkampf: The US Government against the American People

danforth


It's painful to see David Brooks trotted out as some sort of counterpoint to liberal E.J. Dionne.  They are the same side of the same coin.

If only persons such as First Things editor R.R. Reno were given the air space that the redundant Brooks occupies. In the November issue, Reno elegantly lays out the current theologico-political crisis:

Helen Andrews gave a talk at our offices on September 22 as part of our regular series of evening book talks and lectures. Her provocative title: “How to Spot a Dictator.” She’s been researching the Roosevelt era and had a lot to say about the four-term president’s imperious style. But more important was the fact that ­Roosevelt oversaw the construction of the administrative state. The Tennessee Valley Authority was unprecedented: a government business venture. It epitomized the era. The 1930s gave rise to the notion that the federal government has responsibility for ensuring economic prosperity.
We’re at a similar juncture today, though with respect to culture, not economics. Progressives believe that the federal government must ensure “inclusion” and “equality.” The Supreme Court’s redefinition of marriage is akin to nationalization of industries. It’s a government takeover of a traditional institution.
I’m more and more convinced that a planned culture, engineered by political correctness, is as likely to fail as a planned economy. Rising illegitimacy, suicide rates, drug overdose deaths, and racial tension, combined with fatherless households, declining labor participation, and middle class anxiety—these are indicators that it’s already failing.

Even if Beatitudism were the alpha and omega of Christian politics, as we see, even the best intentions can go very wrong. Brooks may be right about one thing--the road to hell is also paved with bad results.

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Justice Thomas' Worst Decision: Brexit (UPDATE: Tillman's prediction wrong)


You can find Lord Chief Justice Thomas' ruling [here]. In addition to LCJ Thomas of Cwmgiedd, the 3-member court also included the Master of the Rolls, Sir Terence Etherton, and Lord Justice Sales. 

In other important news, the members of the Reform Club have revolted in regard to the appointment of the organisation's new secretary. [here] 

I think the Reform Club's secretary will have a longer tenure than the High Court's decision. I predict reversal on appeal by the United Kingdom Supreme Court.

Why? According to the court, triggering Article 50 will have "the effect of changing domestic law", if not immediately, then after negotiations, or no later than 2 years later (the Treaty imposed time limit), should negotiations fail. Crown prerogative cannot be used to modify UK domestic law, and therefore Parliament must weigh in before Article 50 is triggered. 

It seems to me that the court has erred. As long as the European Communities Act 1972 remains in effect, UK domestic law is unaffected by triggering Article 50, even after two years have passed. The UK will still be bound (as a matter of domestic law) by the Treaty of the European Union and by EU directives and regulations even if the UK is no longer a member of the EU. And the only way for the 1972 Act to be repealed or amended is for Parliament to weigh in. Crown prerogative triggering Article 50 does not and cannot effect the content of domestic UK law. 

Seth


My reasoning is hardly unique...see Gerard Batten, MEP, High Court judgement a political not legal decision, UKIP (Nov. 3, 2016). [here]

Decision announced by UKSC on Jan. 24, 2017. Gov't must have vote in Parliament before triggering Article 50. See 2017 UKSC 5 (Hilary Term). [Opinion or Judgment of the Court] 


Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman ) 

See also 
https://twitter.com/SethBTillman/status/795195959458328577 

Seth Barrett Tillman, Two Queries Posted on Conlawprof: Comey, Trump, and the President, The New Reform Club (Nov. 2, 2016, 4:32 AM). [here] 



Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Two Queries Posted on Conlawprof: Comey, Trump, and the President (with addendum)

I posted these two queries on Conlawprof (a listserv populated mostly by legal academics):


I am wondering if the deeply held views expressed on this list are, in fact, deeply held. Any number of people on this list have expressed the view that Trump is dangerous, and if elected, there is a reasonable likelihood that he will plunge the country into destruction. If you believe that, can you describe what you have done (if anything) to prepare should that eventuality come about? And should Trump be elected, what immediate actions will you take in consequence of those changed circumstances? [Addendum: Have you given a half, third, quarter, yea—even a tenth—of your worldly assets to Hillary Clinton, parties, and organizations dedicated to defeat Trump?] Have you moved any of your liquid assets abroad or into foreign currencies? Have you applied for academic or other positions abroad? Have you considered sending your children abroad to be educated? If you have not done anything to date, and if you don’t have any concrete extant plans to take such actions (should Trump win on November 8, 2016), then should not a detached neutral observer conclude that you do not really believe that Trump is a genuine threat? If Trump is a sociopath, should you not be doing something concrete now, other than writing words on Conlawprof and in other fora? 

[and]

I see no real willingness among those opposed to Comey’s decision to apportion any blame on the President. The President chose Comey as his FBI director; the President has a continuing duty to supervise his subordinates (particularly political appointees); the President could countermand Comey’s decision. The President has not done the latter; rather, he has expressed continuing confidence in Comey. So if you are going to criticize Comey, why are you reluctant to criticize the President? If Comey’s decision here is a catastrophic or impeachable misjudgment, then the President shares in that continuing wrong—as long as he stands by Comey. And he is standing by Comey.

If you agree that the President Obama bears political responsibility for Comey’s actions, then perhaps those many people who voted for Obama and recommended that others vote for Obama might be a bit circumspect in regard to making new recommendations today? Or, at the very least, they might explain where they have loudly protested President Obama’s role in what has come about. 

[in a reply to a response on Conlawprof, I wrote:]


You are mistaken: I have not criticized anyone’s motives. I have criticized their reasoning, and in order to take the sting out of my criticism (so that argument might be had on a more abstract & intellectual plane), I refrained from naming names.

First, I am sure that moving assets around in 1976 Peronist Argentina must have been very difficult, if not impossible. But that is not a problem today in the U.S. (at least not yet). Any number of people on this listserv hold mutual funds holding a diversified portfolio of US equities, and/or US bonds, and/or other US-based assets. Now Trump is about even in the polls—so there is some real non-negligible chance he might win. And some of the members of this listserv believe Trump will take the country into a destructive war and/or tank the economy. If that is so, these people should call their mutual fund account manager and move their liquid assets abroad, into foreign equities, into foreign bonds, and into other foreign assets. Many of us can bypass our broker and do this online. It strikes me that if no one on this listserv has recently shifted their assets in this manner, then they cannot really believe that Trump poses an existential threat of a magnitude or type different from Hillary Clinton and other candidates past and present. Why? Because if they did believe that Trump was such a threat, then they would take action now, or at least, they would already have made concrete plans which they could put into motion should Trump prevail.

Second, America has a deep history of volunteer culture. During the Civil War—many Americans believed their country faced an existential threat and therefore, they volunteered to serve in the military at the risk of their lives. If Trump posed a similar threat, and if people on this listserv really believe that, I would expect that they would make some proportionate sacrifice corresponding to the gravity of the situation. Has anyone on this listserv donated ½ his assets or income to the Clinton campaign, the Democratic party, and other organizations pledged to stop Trump? No, not a ½? Perhaps 1/3? A ¼? A 1/5? Yea—even a tenth of all that one has? If these people have made no such sacrifice, perhaps it is fair to conclude that they do not really believe that Trump is an existential threat? They choose to make no personal sacrifice precisely because they do not genuinely believe that any sacrifice is needed. Ockham's razor. 

As long as we are discussing personal experience. I am an American. I moved my family to Ireland for an academic post. It was not easy to make a new life for myself as a migrant with a green card. A few months ago, I sent my eldest child back to the US for a year’s education, as I was not fully satisfied with what is provided here for 11th graders (the so-called “transition year”). Sending your children abroad and beyond your immediate protection is difficult, but it can be done. It is difficult, but manageable. However if I genuinely believed that Ireland was about to be taken over by a “sociopath”, all my children would be out of here on the next plane. If you believe Trump is a “sociopath” and have done nothing substantial to protect yourself and your family (except to write words on Conlawprof and other similar fora), then exactly who is the “sociopath”? It seems more sensible to believe that the claims of Trump being a “sociopath” are not genuinely held (but function as normal political hyperbole) or that the proponents of this view have not thought it all the way through, and if so, their views are properly discounted until such a time as they do think them through.

Again, I have not criticized anyone's motivations. Have you? 

[and in a third query, which I have not yet posted on Conlawprof, I wrote:]

In Slate, Professor Amar writes:

[T]he rule of law is imperiled by punishing people who are not guilty; the rule of law is violated when the prosecutor-in-chief (also known as the president) pronounces a person guilty by name when the facts utterly fail to support this smear; the rule of law is in mortal danger when an overheated crowd roars, as it did in Phoenix, “Lock her up!” This is news not because it has not happened before, but because it is still happening—and getting worse.

Akhil Reed Amar, Comey Is a Constitutional Lightweight, and Donald Trump Remains the Only Scandal Worth Talking About, Slate (Oct. 31, 2016, 2:43 PM), http://tinyurl.com/zdt8ot2.


Trump is not part of the administration; he is not a government official. And (I expect) the same applies to the great majority of the “overheated” crowd. So isn’t everything said here just constitutionally protected speech? How could constitutionally protected speech endanger the rule of law? It is a real puzzle.

Seth

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SethBTillman ( @SethBTillman )  

Seth Barrett Tillman, President James Buchanan, Chief Justice Roger Taney, Copperheads—and the Quakers, The New Reform Club (Oct. 30, 2016, 7:44 AM). [Here]