A Theory about Trump and Greenland

 

 

Trump wants Europe’s NATO members to pay for their own defense. Trump does not think Europe’s NATO members are meeting their political commitments for military defense spending. But Trump can neither unilaterally disband NATO nor terminate U.S. participation in NATO without incurring domestic political blowback—including from his own party. So he gives speeches about GREENLAND . . . in the hope that: 

Europe’s NATO members ditch NATO . . . and then, there will be little (or, perhaps, no) domestic political blowback . . . 

AND/OR, Europe’s NATO members increase their military spending to what Trump believes to be (closer) to their political commitments to NATO (and, implicitly, to the United States); 

AND/OR Denmark, de jure or de facto, makes GREENLAND independent (etc); 

AND/OR, all US products (and services) enter NATO member states absent tariffs (including EU tariffs). 

Trump may believe, and, perhaps correctly, that any one or any combination of these results are winners.

Seth Barrett Tillman, ‘A Theory About Trump and Greenland,’ New Reform Club (Jan. 6, 2026, 5:08 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2026/01/a-theory-about-trump-and-greenland.html>;