Welcome to the internet. Everything you say can and will be used against you.

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Part 2, Conlawprof and Climate Change



From: Professor BBB:

I don’t want to belabor this. Perhaps “expected” would have been a better choice than “predicted,” albeit neither term appears in the IPCC report. The point is that the 2017 observations exceeded the trend. The trend points to what might be predicted.

More important, the macro-effects are much, much more important than parsing micro-precision.

---- ---- ----

From: Seth

No one wants to belabor anything. But only you can decide what you reply to, and how you do so (“Your note reveals a common misunderstanding of the predictive models ....”).

You originally wrote “predicted”—even to the extent of interjecting that word into a quotation from a report. Now you are saying “exceeded the trend.” But the report did not say that either ... it merely said one dataset (2017) exceeded a prior 30-year “average.” I see nothing about “trend.” In a climate stable environment, as the alternative or null hypothesis, there was a 50% likelihood that the 2017 dataset would exceed the prior 30-year average. So that fact is hardly all that interesting. Right?

I think my initial comment about climate change models lacking robustness—including, e.g., the ability to reasonably accurately predict future observations—stands unrebutted. This is particularly true in light of Professor BBB’s original observation: “The models and reports also tend to under predict global temperatures.” Models that systematically over predict the amount of observed global warming (if any) & models that systematically under predict the amount of observed global warming (if any)—are equally models that don’t work well. Indeed, when observed phenomena contradict what a proposed model predicts, the standard practice is to say the model and/or its predictions have been falsified. See Popper. We would not govern our private affairs by models that we know don’t work—it seems (to me at least) to govern our public affairs on such a basis is wrong.

Seth

Seth Barrett Tillman, Part 2, Conlawprof and Climate Change, New Reform Club (Aug. 22, 2019, 8:35 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/part-2-conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 

Here is part 3: Seth Barrett Tillman, Part 3, Conlawprof and Climate ChangeNew Reform Club (Aug. 23, 2019, 7:05 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/part-3-conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 

Here is part 1: Seth Barrett Tillman, Conlawprof and Climate ChangeNew Reform Club (Aug. 21, 2019, 12:44 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 




18 comments:

Kimberly nicholas said...


How do i win my ex back from another woman,My name is Kimberly Nicholas from Sydney,. I never believed in love spells or magic until i met this spell caster once when i went to Africa in February this year on a business summit. I meant a man who’s name is (Great Matatan powerful Spell ), he is really powerful and could help cast spells to bring back one’s gone, lost, misbehaving lover and magic money spell or spell for a good job or luck spell .I’m now happy & a living testimony cos the man i had wanted to marry left me 3 weeks before our wedding and my life was upside down cos our relationship has been on for 4 years. I really loved him, but his mother was against us and he had no good paying job. So when i met this spell caster, i told him what happened and explained the situation of things to him. At first i was undecided, skeptical and doubtful, but i just gave it a try. And in 7 days when i returned to Sydney, my boyfriend (now husband) called me by himself and came to me apologizing that everything had been settled with his mom and family and he got a new job interview so we should get married. I didn’t believe it cos the spell caster only asked for my name and my boyfriends name and all i wanted him to do. Well we are happily married now and we are expecting our little kid, and my husband also got the new job and our lives became much better. His email is:(  matatanspell@yahoo.com .  )  

Albert Gabrielle said...

I am  Albert Gabrielle from UNITED KINGDOM. my husband left me and my two kids for a couple months, I tried to beg him even I called him, he didn't pick up when he came back home the 3rd week he told me he wanted a divorce I was so sad I cried all night he left again I was so lonely the next day I was searching for something online when i found a spell caster called DR ODUDUWA who have helped so many people with their various issues and problems, so I contacted him with my problems he told me it will take 48hrs and my husband will be back to me I did everything he told me to do and the next day very early my husband came back kneeling and begging he canceled the divorce we are now happy together.....   he also cure...HIV/AIDS,HEPATITIS,LOW SPERM COUNT,CANCER DISEASES,FIBROID DISEASES,GONORRHEA,GONORRHEA,FALLOPIAN TUBE,PREGNANCY,HERPES. all thanks to DR ODUDUWA he can also help you too, contact him directly if you need his assistance on EMAIL....droduduwa2@gmail.com
 for whatsapp him +2349019861336

Albert Gabrielle said...

I am  Albert Gabrielle from UNITED KINGDOM. my husband left me and my two kids for a couple months, I tried to beg him even I called him, he didn't pick up when he came back home the 3rd week he told me he wanted a divorce I was so sad I cried all night he left again I was so lonely the next day I was searching for something online when i found a spell caster called DR ODUDUWA who have helped so many people with their various issues and problems, so I contacted him with my problems he told me it will take 48hrs and my husband will be back to me I did everything he told me to do and the next day very early my husband came back kneeling and begging he canceled the divorce we are now happy together.....   he also cure...HIV/AIDS,HEPATITIS,LOW SPERM COUNT,CANCER DISEASES,FIBROID DISEASES,GONORRHEA,GONORRHEA,FALLOPIAN TUBE,PREGNANCY,HERPES. all thanks to DR ODUDUWA he can also help you too, contact him directly if you need his assistance on EMAIL....droduduwa2@gmail.com
 for whatsapp him +2349019861336

Albert Gabrielle said...

I am  Albert Gabrielle from UNITED KINGDOM. my husband left me and my two kids for a couple months, I tried to beg him even I called him, he didn't pick up when he came back home the 3rd week he told me he wanted a divorce I was so sad I cried all night he left again I was so lonely the next day I was searching for something online when i found a spell caster called DR ODUDUWA who have helped so many people with their various issues and problems, so I contacted him with my problems he told me it will take 48hrs and my husband will be back to me I did everything he told me to do and the next day very early my husband came back kneeling and begging he canceled the divorce we are now happy together.....   he also cure...HIV/AIDS,HEPATITIS,LOW SPERM COUNT,CANCER DISEASES,FIBROID DISEASES,GONORRHEA,GONORRHEA,FALLOPIAN TUBE,PREGNANCY,HERPES. all thanks to DR ODUDUWA he can also help you too, contact him directly if you need his assistance on EMAIL....droduduwa2@gmail.com
 for whatsapp him +2349019861336

Albert Gabrielle said...

I am  Albert Gabrielle from UNITED KINGDOM. my husband left me and my two kids for a couple months, I tried to beg him even I called him, he didn't pick up when he came back home the 3rd week he told me he wanted a divorce I was so sad I cried all night he left again I was so lonely the next day I was searching for something online when i found a spell caster called DR ODUDUWA who have helped so many people with their various issues and problems, so I contacted him with my problems he told me it will take 48hrs and my husband will be back to me I did everything he told me to do and the next day very early my husband came back kneeling and begging he canceled the divorce we are now happy together.....   he also cure...HIV/AIDS,HEPATITIS,LOW SPERM COUNT,CANCER DISEASES,FIBROID DISEASES,GONORRHEA,GONORRHEA,FALLOPIAN TUBE,PREGNANCY,HERPES. all thanks to DR ODUDUWA he can also help you too, contact him directly if you need his assistance on EMAIL....droduduwa2@gmail.com
 for whatsapp him +2349019861336

Unknown said...

Get Your Wife Back, Perfect Urgent Love Spell. Am Alexis scorpio from FL Usa All Thanks To Dr happy Who Brought Back The Love Of My Life. my girlfriend cheated on me and asked for a breakup. I don't believe at first i try to get back with her but all she told me was she’s with someone else. that she is no longer interested in marrying me at that point i was heart broken coz i love my girlfriend so much that i could not let go off her all of a sudden she left me, i really love her and never can imagine my life without her. not until i came across a powerful real spell caster Dr happy who promise me 24hours urgent love spell to get back with my girlfriend, good twenty-four {24} hours. hmm-mm, it was a good night time at 11:pm within the days that Dr happy told me that my girlfriend will be back, at first i heard the bell rings getting close to my door i heard someone saying honey!!!, it sound familiar i opened the door and i saw my girlfriend standing and weeping in front of me. i was not surprised because its all i have been praying for her to come back home. Guess what 2 weeks after she noticed her system and her body temperature was changed and i took her to clinic for check up and the doctor told me that there is life in her which means she was pregnant i really wants to use this opportunity to thanks Dr happy so much and the love page that directed me to Dr happy if you have any problem getting your ex back, or predicament that is worse or exactly like this you have been into, contact Dr happy on happylovespell2@gmail.com Whatsapp/cal +2348133873774
visit his website...happylovespell2.webnode.com/
about his love spell Blogs site.http://happylovespel.blogspot.com.ng/

Amaya Nicole said...

HOW I GOT MY EX LOVER BACK WITH THE HELP OF A REAL AND GENUINE LOVE SPELL CASTER DR PETER. CONTACT ON WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649

Good day ladies and gentle men, MY NAME IS AMAYA NYCOLE from UNITED STATE i want to give thanks to the great Dr Peter for bringing back my lover in a twinkle of an eye after been deceived by so many fake spell casters  online who claim to be spell casters. But with the help of Dr Peter my prayers came through by him bringing back my ex lover to me within 24 hours which other spell casters could not do. I want to say a big thank you to Dr Peter for bringing back my happiness to me and if there is anybody who is in need of help i will advice you to contact Dr Peter for help as soon as possible because he will surely restore your lost joy.CONTACT THIS GREAT DR PETER TODAY FOR ANY KIND OF PROBLEM SOLUTION AND GET YOUR PROBELEM SOLVED 1OO% GUARANTEED AND ASSURED THANK YOU DR PETER. His private email:  MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@GMAIL.COM
MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@YAHOO.COM
 CALL/WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649 
my youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV04v3z2GA0 
His websites: http://MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST.WEBSITE2.ME 

FLORES said...


I will forever be indebted to the great Doctor TAKUTA for fixing my broken marriage after my husband left me for his mistress for 3 months. I never believed in spells until my friend introduced me to him. At first, I was skeptical about him because I heard a lots about false spell casters but I put my doubts behind me for i was desperate to get my husband back and I did according to what he instructed me to do. Now my husband is back just within 48 hours of contacting him. I'm living happily with my husband again after 6 months of divorce and I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in money spells, lottery spells, sickness spells E.T.C. Get connected with Doctor Takuta now, his email is takutaspellalter@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +27788634102

FLORES said...


I am very happy today with my family. My name is rose sarah living in USA, My husband left me for a good 3 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to Dr. Takuta a spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 weeks. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email takutaspellalter@gmail. com… Now i will advice any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now a fast solution without steress.. He always hello, now i call him my father. I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in money spells, lottery spells, sickness spells E.T.C. Get connected with Doctor Takuta now, his email is takutaspellalter@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +27788634102

FLORES said...


Dr TAKUTA brought back my ex within 24 hours with a powerful lovespell. He is reliable and trusted contact TAKUTA for marriage lovespell on email: takutaspellalter@gmail.com or whatsap on +27788634102

FLORES said...


I am very happy today with my family. My name is rose sarah living in USA, My husband left me for a good 3 years now, and i love him so much, i have been looking for a way to get him back since then. i have tried many options but he did not come back, until i met a friend that darted me to Dr. Takuta a spell caster, who helped me to bring back my husband after 2 weeks. Me and my husband are living happily together today, That man is great, you can contact him via email takutaspellalter@gmail. com… Now i will advice any serious persons that found themselves in this kind of problem to contact him now a fast solution without steress.. He always hello, now i call him my father. I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in money spells, lottery spells, sickness spells E.T.C. Get connected with Doctor Takuta now, his email is takutaspellalter@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +27788634102

Tracy Morgan said...

MY HUSBAND LEFT ME FOR NO REASON. I WAS NO LONGER MY SELF AND AT A TIME, I ATTEMPTED TO COMMIT SUICIDE. BUT THANK GOD I CAME ACROSS ROBINSON BUCKLER ONLINE. I READ GOOD REVIEWS ABOUT HIS GOOD WORK AND HOW USEFUL AND HELPFUL HE HAS BEEN TO PEOPLE. I CONTACTED HIM AND TOLD HIM MY PROBLEM. HE TOLD ME THAT MY MAN WILL COME BACK TO ME. HE TOLD ME WHAT TO DO AND I DID IT AND TO MY GREAT SURPRISE MY HUSBAND CAME BACK JUST AS HE SAID. I EVEN NOTICED THAT WHEN MY HUSBAND RETURNED, HE EVEN LOVES ME MORE. THIS IS NOT BRAIN WASHING, CONTACT HIM NOW ON HER EMAIL: ROBINSONBUCKLER@YAHOO.COM WEBSITE https://robinbuckler.com/ WHATSAPP NO. +15024438691

Robbie Payton said...

I rarely share my story with people, not only because it put me at the lowest point ever but because it made me a person of ridicule among family and friends. I put all I had into Binary Options ($690,000) after hearing great testimonies about this new investment

 strategy. I was made to believe my investment would triple, it started good and I got returns (not up to what I had invested). Gathered more and involved a couple family members, but I didn't know I was setting myself up for the kill, in less than no time all we had put ($820,000) was gone. It almost seem I had set them up, they came at me strong and hard. After searching and looking for how to make those scums pay back, I got introduced to maryshea03@gmail.com to WhatsApp her +15623847738.who helped recover about 80% of my lost funds within a month.

Lucy Morgan said...

HOW I GOT MY EX HUSBAND BACK WITH THE HELP OF REAL AND EFFECTIVE SPELL FROM DR  KHAM My name is Lucy morgan, I never thought I will smile again, My husband left me with two kids for one year, All effort to bring him back failed I thought I'm not going to see him again not until I met a lady called Monica Liyana  who told me about a spell caster called Dr. Kham, She gave me his email address and mobile number and I contacted him and he assured me that within 48 hours my husband will come back to me, In less than 48 hours my husband came back started begging for forgiveness saying it is the devils work, so I'm still surprise till now about this miracle,i couldn't conceive but as soon as the spell was cast,i became pregnant and gave birth to my third child,if you need any assistance from him you can contact him via:email: dr.khamcaregiver@gmail.com Or dr.khamcaregiver@outlook.com you can also WhatsApp or call him now: +2348159922297  He can also cure the following Virus1. HIV / AIDS
2. HERPES 1/2
3. CANCER
4. ALS (Lou Gehrig’s disease)
5. Hepatitis B

Love said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mofar said...

I am so Happy to be writing this article in here, i am here to explore
blogs forum about the wonderful and most safe cure for HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS
. I was positive to the deadly Virus called HERPES and i lost hope
completely because i was rejected even by my closet friends. i searched
online to know and inquire about cure for HERPES and i saw Dr Godwin
testimony online on how he was cured so many persons from Herpes Disease so
i decided to contact the great herbalist because i know that nature has the
power to heal everything. i contacted him to know how he can help me and he
told me never to worry that he will help me with the natural herbs from
God! After 2 days of contacting him, he told me that the cure is ready and
he will send it to me via FEDEX or DHL and it will get to me after 4 days!
i used the medicine as he instructed me (MORNING and EVENING) and i was
cured! its really like a dream but i'm so happy! That’s the reason i
decided to also add more comment of Him so that more people can be saved
just like me! and if you need his help ,contact his Email: drgodwinsolutionhome@gmail.com you can massage
him on whatsapp @ +2348054615060

Unknown said...

HELLO EVERYONE
Dr ILUNAMIEN has really be so wonderful to me i will always testify of his greatness in my life who could have believe Dr ilunamien herbal herbs cured me from my herpes virus which i was having for the past 4 year,i came across Dr. ILUNAMIEN on a page of how to treat virus and i saw a lot of testimony of how great Dr ILUNAMIEN has helped them in there various problems and situations and his mobile numbers were also on each testimony +2348155204816
to contact him, because i needed help to get rid of my herpes virus i wrote him on whats app and told him what i was passing through!dear friends all Dr ILUNAMIEN ask me was not much to make sure am cured from my herpes virus, remember health is wealth, he sent me a herbal remedy for the cure of my herpes virus i was so much happy because after drinking the herbs as i was instructed by him i went to the hospital for checkup to my surprise my herpes result came out negative i will recommend Dr. ILUNAMIEN to anyone who need his help you can also whatsapp him +2348155204816
...Thanks dr..

COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS said...



☑️☑️COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS ☑️☑️

•• Are you Seeking for the Best Legit Professional Hackers online?
Congratulations Your search ends right here with us. •• ⚡️⚡️

☑️☑️For Years Now We have Been helping companies secure there Infrastructures against malicious Attacks, however private individuals have been making use of our services to provide Optimum solutions to their cyber and Hacking related Issues by providing them unlimited Access to their desired informations from their Target such as Phone Hack (Which enables them to monitor their kids/wife/husband/boyfriend/girlfriend, by gaining access to everything they are doing on their phone without their notice), Credit Card Mishaps, Website Hacking, Funds Recoveries And Every Other Cyber Related Issues That has to Do With HACKING.

☑️☑️COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS is a vibrant squad of dedicated online hackers maintaining the highest standards and unparalleled professionalism in every aspect.
We Are One Of The Leading Hack Teams In The United States With So Much Accolades From The Deep Web And IT Companies. ••
••We Offer Varieties Of LEGIT Hacking Services With the Help Of Our Root HackTools, Special HackTools and Our Technical Hacking Strategies Which Surpasses All Other Hackers.

☑️ Below Is A Full List Of Our Services:
▪️ FUNDS RECOVERY ON SCAM INVESTMENTS, BINARY OPTIONS TRADING and ALL TYPES OF SCAMS.
▪️ WEBSITE AND DATABASE HACKING 💻
▪️ CREDIT REPAIR. 💳
▪️ PHONE HACKING & CLONING (giving you 📱 Unnoticeable access to everything Happening on the Target’s Phone)
▪️ CLEARING OF CRIMINAL RECORDS ❌
▪️ SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS HACKING 📱
▪️RECOVERY OF DELETED FILES 📤
▪️LOCATION TRACKING 📌
▪️BITCOIN MINING ⛏ And lot More.


☑️We have a team of seasoned PROFESSIONALS under various skillsets when it comes to online hacking services. Our company in fact houses a separate group of specialists who are productively focussed and established authorities in different platforms. They hail from a proven track record and have cracked even the toughest of barriers to intrude and capture all relevant data needed by our Clients. Some Of These Specialist Includes ⭐️ DAWID CZAGAN⭐️ JACK CABLE ⭐️ SEAN MELIA ⭐️ ARNE SWINNEN ⭐️And More. All you Need To do is To Write us a Mail Then We’ll Assign any of These Hackers To You Instantly.

☑️COMPOSITE CYBER SECURITY SPECIALISTS is available for customer care 24/7. Feel Free to Place your Requests.

☑️☑️CONTACT:
••• Email:
composite.cybersecurity@protonmail.com

🔘2020 © composite cybersecurity specialists
🔘Want faster service? Contact us!
🔘All Rights Reserved ®️.