Mensch tracht, un Gott lacht

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Part 2, Conlawprof and Climate Change



From: Professor BBB:

I don’t want to belabor this. Perhaps “expected” would have been a better choice than “predicted,” albeit neither term appears in the IPCC report. The point is that the 2017 observations exceeded the trend. The trend points to what might be predicted.

More important, the macro-effects are much, much more important than parsing micro-precision.

---- ---- ----

From: Seth

No one wants to belabor anything. But only you can decide what you reply to, and how you do so (“Your note reveals a common misunderstanding of the predictive models ....”).

You originally wrote “predicted”—even to the extent of interjecting that word into a quotation from a report. Now you are saying “exceeded the trend.” But the report did not say that either ... it merely said one dataset (2017) exceeded a prior 30-year “average.” I see nothing about “trend.” In a climate stable environment, as the alternative or null hypothesis, there was a 50% likelihood that the 2017 dataset would exceed the prior 30-year average. So that fact is hardly all that interesting. Right?

I think my initial comment about climate change models lacking robustness—including, e.g., the ability to reasonably accurately predict future observations—stands unrebutted. This is particularly true in light of Professor BBB’s original observation: “The models and reports also tend to under predict global temperatures.” Models that systematically over predict the amount of observed global warming (if any) & models that systematically under predict the amount of observed global warming (if any)—are equally models that don’t work well. Indeed, when observed phenomena contradict what a proposed model predicts, the standard practice is to say the model and/or its predictions have been falsified. See Popper. We would not govern our private affairs by models that we know don’t work—it seems (to me at least) to govern our public affairs on such a basis is wrong.

Seth

Seth Barrett Tillman, Part 2, Conlawprof and Climate Change, New Reform Club (Aug. 22, 2019, 8:35 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/part-2-conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 

Here is part 3: Seth Barrett Tillman, Part 3, Conlawprof and Climate ChangeNew Reform Club (Aug. 23, 2019, 7:05 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/part-3-conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 

Here is part 1: Seth Barrett Tillman, Conlawprof and Climate ChangeNew Reform Club (Aug. 21, 2019, 12:44 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/08/conlawprof-and-climate-change.html>. 




16 comments:

Kimberly nicholas said...


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Albert Gabrielle said...

I am  Albert Gabrielle from UNITED KINGDOM. my husband left me and my two kids for a couple months, I tried to beg him even I called him, he didn't pick up when he came back home the 3rd week he told me he wanted a divorce I was so sad I cried all night he left again I was so lonely the next day I was searching for something online when i found a spell caster called DR ODUDUWA who have helped so many people with their various issues and problems, so I contacted him with my problems he told me it will take 48hrs and my husband will be back to me I did everything he told me to do and the next day very early my husband came back kneeling and begging he canceled the divorce we are now happy together.....   he also cure...HIV/AIDS,HEPATITIS,LOW SPERM COUNT,CANCER DISEASES,FIBROID DISEASES,GONORRHEA,GONORRHEA,FALLOPIAN TUBE,PREGNANCY,HERPES. all thanks to DR ODUDUWA he can also help you too, contact him directly if you need his assistance on EMAIL....droduduwa2@gmail.com
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FLORES said...


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FLORES said...


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