Only
England’s results are now in. Scotland and Northern Ireland will not report
until later today (Monday), or perhaps tomorrow. (See <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament>.)
As
to England’s results… in 2016, there was a binary referendum: Remain or Leave.
Leave prevailed. But the professional chattering classes told us that the public did not
mean it, did not understand it, and it cannot be brought about in any event. It
did not matter that Leave had more votes.
Now
in the 2019 EU MEP races, the new wisdom is that the Remain parties beat the
Leave parties in terms of the popular vote. The problem is that the 2019
election was not a binary choice. It was not a referendum on Leave or Remain, and many parties do not have a clear
vision for Remain or Leave: including Labour and Tory. Again: this was not a
referendum, it was an election for MEP seats.
In
terms of seats:
Brexit
Party (28 seats) >
LibDem (15 seats) + Green (7 seats) + Plaid Cymru (Welsh regional party) (1 seat); that is,
LibDem (15 seats) + Green (7 seats) + Plaid Cymru (Welsh regional party) (1 seat); that is,
28
seats (Leave) > 23 seats (Remain)
[UKIP
had zero seats]
[Change-UK had zero seats]
[There are some reports that Brexit Party has 29 seats—that may include a yet to be finally determined seat in Scotland.]
[There are some reports that Brexit Party has 29 seats—that may include a yet to be finally determined seat in Scotland.]
With
the 2016 referendum, the referendum was about votes, and Leave prevailed: 52 to
48. By contrast, the 2019 election was about seats, and Leave prevailed over
Remain: 28 to 23. See how they changed the goal posts—again?
The
second, and more important, thing you will not see in the media … is about
votes. The Remain parties are saying they won the popular vote:
Brexit
Party (33.3%) + UKIP (3.5%) <
LibDem (20.9%) + Green (12.5%) + Plaid Cymru (1.0%)
+ Change UK (3.6%)
36.8%
(Leave) < 38.0% (Remain)
[Again: UKIP had zero seats]
[Again: Change-UK had zero seats]
Those
numbers are not telling—at least, not as predictors for the next general
election for the (national) Westminster (or UK) Parliament. Non-British EU citizens who are
resident in the UK are allowed to vote in the UK in EU elections, but as a general matter, such Non-British EU citizens do not have voting
rights in a general election for the (national) Westminster (or UK) Parliament. That will cost
Remain 100,000s, if not millions of votes in the next general election. That’s what they are not telling you,
and they never will.
Seth
For results, see: < https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament>. The totals at the top of the page only include Great Britain (and Gibraltar), absent Northern Ireland results. NI results are further down the page.
Seth Barrett Tillman, What They Are Not
Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27,
2019, 3:59 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-uk.html>.
For update, see:
Seth Barrett Tillman, FINAL RESULTS: What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 2:26 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/final-results-what-they-are-not-telling.html>.
For update, see:
Seth Barrett Tillman, FINAL RESULTS: What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 2:26 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/final-results-what-they-are-not-telling.html>.
Welcome Instapundit and ChicagoBoyz readers.
Have a look around New Reform Club—my co-bloggers do good work!
6 comments:
Professor Tillman, please spell it out for me.
"That WILL cost ..."
You mean in the next election, or the one just now?
in the next election!
Quote: Again: this was not a referendum, it was an election for MEP seats.
I suspect to the extent that this election was about leaving the EU, it indicates that a plurality of voters want their EU executives to raise so much hell in Brussels that the EU bureaucracy will be delighted to see them go under any terms the British care to set. That sounds like a good move to me.
What they aren't telling you is the European Parliament was built for the appearance of democracy only. MEPs have little power. Real power lies in the hands of an un-elected European Commission. Yay, let's pretend democracy!
I'm just checking, as I think EU nationals who are paying council tax while living in the UK are allowed to vote. Yes, they got a vote:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/european-elections/can_i_vote.html
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