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Monday, May 27, 2019

What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results




Only England’s results are now in. Scotland and Northern Ireland will not report until later today (Monday), or perhaps tomorrow. (See <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament>.)

As to England’s results… in 2016, there was a binary referendum: Remain or Leave. Leave prevailed. But the professional chattering classes told us that the public did not mean it, did not understand it, and it cannot be brought about in any event. It did not matter that Leave had more votes.

Now in the 2019 EU MEP races, the new wisdom is that the Remain parties beat the Leave parties in terms of the popular vote. The problem is that the 2019 election was not a binary choice. It was not a referendum on Leave or Remain, and many parties do not have a clear vision for Remain or Leave: including Labour and Tory. Again: this was not a referendum, it was an election for MEP seats.

In terms of seats:
Brexit Party (28 seats) > 
     LibDem (15 seats) + Green (7 seats) + Plaid Cymru (Welsh regional party) (1 seat); that is,
28 seats (Leave) > 23 seats (Remain)
[UKIP had zero seats]
[Change-UK had zero seats]
[There are some reports that Brexit Party has 29 seatsthat may include a yet to be finally determined seat in Scotland.]

With the 2016 referendum, the referendum was about votes, and Leave prevailed: 52 to 48. By contrast, the 2019 election was about seats, and Leave prevailed over Remain: 28 to 23. See how they changed the goal postsagain?

The second, and more important, thing you will not see in the media … is about votes. The Remain parties are saying they won the popular vote:
Brexit Party (33.3%) + UKIP (3.5%) < 
     LibDem (20.9%) + Green (12.5%) + Plaid Cymru (1.0%) + Change UK (3.6%)
36.8% (Leave) < 38.0% (Remain)
[Again: UKIP had zero seats]
[Again: Change-UK had zero seats]

Those numbers are not telling—at least, not as predictors for the next general election for the (national) Westminster (or UK) Parliament. Non-British EU citizens who are resident in the UK are allowed to vote in the UK in EU elections, but as a general matter, such Non-British EU citizens do not have voting rights in a general election for the (national) Westminster (or UK) Parliament. That will cost Remain 100,000s, if not millions of votes in the next general election. That’s what they are not telling you, and they never will.

Seth

For results, see: <https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament>. The totals at the top of the page only include Great Britain (and Gibraltar), absent Northern Ireland results. NI results are further down the page. 


Seth Barrett Tillman, What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 3:59 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-uk.html>. 

For update, see: 
Seth Barrett Tillman, FINAL RESULTS: What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election ResultsNew Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 2:26 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/final-results-what-they-are-not-telling.html>. 



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5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Professor Tillman, please spell it out for me.
"That WILL cost ..."
You mean in the next election, or the one just now?

Seth Barrett Tillman said...

in the next election!

Inkling said...

Quote: Again: this was not a referendum, it was an election for MEP seats.

I suspect to the extent that this election was about leaving the EU, it indicates that a plurality of voters want their EU executives to raise so much hell in Brussels that the EU bureaucracy will be delighted to see them go under any terms the British care to set. That sounds like a good move to me.

Anonymous said...

What they aren't telling you is the European Parliament was built for the appearance of democracy only. MEPs have little power. Real power lies in the hands of an un-elected European Commission. Yay, let's pretend democracy!

Anonymous said...

I'm just checking, as I think EU nationals who are paying council tax while living in the UK are allowed to vote. Yes, they got a vote:
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/en/european-elections/can_i_vote.html