UK-wide results are now in. In 2016,
there was a binary referendum: Remain or Leave. Leave prevailed. But the
professional chattering classes told us that the British public did not mean
it, did not understand it, and it cannot be brought about in any event. It did
not seem to matter that Leave had more votes. Evidently democracy did not count
for much.
Now in 2019, in the European Union election
for UK members of the European Parliament, the new wisdom is that the Remain
parties beat the Leave parties in terms of the popular vote. The problem is
that the 2019 election was not a binary choice. It was not a referendum on
Leave or Remain, and many parties do not have a clear vision for Remain or
Leave: including the long dominant Labour and Tory parties. Again: the UK
election was not a referendum, it was an election for seats in the European
Parliament.
In terms of seats: Nigel Farage’s
Brexit Party (29 seats) + Democratic Unionist (1 seat) > Liberal Democrats
(16 seats) + Greens (7 seats) + Scottish National Party (3 seats) + Plaid Cymru
(1 seat) + Alliance (1 seat) + Sinn Fein (1 seat). In other words, 30 seats
(Leave) > 29 seats (Remain). With the 2016 referendum, the referendum was
about votes, and Leave prevailed over Remain: 52 to 48. By contrast, the 2019 election was
about seats, and here too, Leave prevailed over Remain: 30 to 29. See how they changed
the goal posts—yet again?
The second, and more important, thing
you will not see reported … is about votes. The Remain parties are saying they
won the popular vote: Brexit Party (30.5%) + Democratic Unionist (0.7%) + UKIP
(3.2%) < Liberal Democrats (19.6%) + Greens (11.8%) + Scottish National
Party (3.5%) + Plaid Cymru (1.0%) + Sinn Fein (0.7%) + Alliance (0.6%) + Change
UK (3.3%). In other words, 34.4% (Leave) < 40.5% (Remain).
Those numbers are not telling—at least,
not as predictors for the next general election for the (national) Westminster
(or UK) Parliament. EU citizens (who are not UK citizens) who are resident in
the UK are allowed to vote in the UK in EU elections, but as a general matter, such
EU citizens (who are not UK citizens) do not have voting rights in a general
election for the (national) Westminster (or UK) Parliament. That will cost
Remain 100,000s, if not millions of votes in the next general election. That’s
what they are not telling you, and they never will.
Seth Barrett Tillman, FINAL RESULTS: What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 2:26 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/final-results-what-they-are-not-telling.html>.
ORIGINAL POST: Seth Barrett Tillman, What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 3:59 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-uk.html>.
ORIGINAL POST: Seth Barrett Tillman, What They Are Not Telling You About The UK Election Results, New Reform Club (May 27, 2019, 3:59 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/05/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-uk.html>.
Welcome Instapundit and ChicagoBoyz readers.
Have a look around New Reform Club—my co-bloggers do good work!
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