The shadowy figure of S.T. Karnick once lurked in an organization founded by a mental superstar. The genius: Herman Kahn. The organization: The Hudson Institute. It was there that Karnick founded a magazine that combined ultra-high quality content with a low profile. See, it wasn't how many people read it. It was WHO read it. Kind of like the Reform Club.
In any case, Kahn, who was once supposed to be the highest IQ on record, lived an amazing life and produced a fascinating body of work, primarily on nuclear war. It seems he put his talents to better use than the person now claimed to have the highest IQ, one Marilyn vos Savant, who answers trivia questions and brainteasers in the pages of Parade Magazine, a Sunday newspaper insert. (Get a white coat and go cure cancer, Marilyn.)
Read all about the amazing Kahn here.
Tuesday, July 05, 2005
Mystery Corner: Nero Wolfe
Being a "man of the heft," I've always been a big fan of Rex Stout's Nero Wolfe, the brilliant detective who weighs "a seventh of a ton," cultivates orchids, and solves crimes by passively taking in data acquired by his leg man Archie Goodwin. You might notice that "Nero Wolfe" contains the same vowels in the same order as "Sherlock Holmes." Rex Stout created Wolfe after making a fortune with a school bookkeeping system he invented. About 50 million books sold later, one might imagine the Nero Wolfe fortune was a bit larger.
I'm moved to bring him up because I just read my first disappointing Wolfe mystery. The standard formula is that Wolfe stays at home, Archie digs, and then Wolfe gathers everyone to his office for an entertaining explanation of whodunit. Impossible mysteries are thus solved. In The Black Mountain, Wolfe is forced to go out adventuring and it doesn't work. He solves the crime by overhearing someone confess to it. There's an exception to every rule and there is apparently such a thing as a bad Nero Wolfe.
I'm moved to bring him up because I just read my first disappointing Wolfe mystery. The standard formula is that Wolfe stays at home, Archie digs, and then Wolfe gathers everyone to his office for an entertaining explanation of whodunit. Impossible mysteries are thus solved. In The Black Mountain, Wolfe is forced to go out adventuring and it doesn't work. He solves the crime by overhearing someone confess to it. There's an exception to every rule and there is apparently such a thing as a bad Nero Wolfe.
Paul Ehrlich, Call Your Office
While idly reviewing the postings of the last few days and the really enjoyable give-and-take that has resulted on a broad range of topics, I suddenly discovered that way down in the 14th comment on my Royally Flush, our nonpareil kibitzer Tlaloc has referred to something that I thought had long since been laid to rest.
The population crisis! OMG!!! I feel like aliens have abducted me and flashed me back into the 1970s.
What's next, bell bottoms?
Dude, the current crisis is the population shortage in industrialized countries as our societies fail to replace ourselves. Ben Wattenberg was the first to write a book about this a few years ago, but by now recognition of this serious turn of events is well-nigh universal. Perhaps we should chip in for Tlaloc and buy him a see-a-nigh dog.
The population crisis! OMG!!! I feel like aliens have abducted me and flashed me back into the 1970s.
What's next, bell bottoms?
Dude, the current crisis is the population shortage in industrialized countries as our societies fail to replace ourselves. Ben Wattenberg was the first to write a book about this a few years ago, but by now recognition of this serious turn of events is well-nigh universal. Perhaps we should chip in for Tlaloc and buy him a see-a-nigh dog.
Monday, July 04, 2005
Blewitt Every Time
If you are morally opposed to all forms of gambling, or you avoid contact with it because it triggers a debilitating addiction, then please read no further.
Belmont Racetrack on its free website alternates articles between two writers, Eric Donovan and Jason Blewitt. They write assessments of the big races later in the day and although they don't specifically predict races, they will lay out their views on which horse is best and why. Although I have not done any wagering based on this, lately I have noticed that Blewitt is a fabulous analyst.
Today, for July 4, these are the predictions that emerge from his article and how well a bettor would have done if he ventured 2 dollars on each prediction.
1) Roman Ruler is the best horse in the 9th race. He won, paying $6.40.
2) Flower Alley is second best. He came in second, paying $3.10.
3) Proud Accolade is third best. He came in third, paying $3.80.
4) The sequence of Roman Ruler and Flower Alley paid $15.80.
5) The three-horse sequence (known as trifecta) paid $60.50.
6) Henny Hughes is the best horse in the 7th race. He won, paying $3.40.
7) Short Circuit is second best. He came in second, paying $2.80.
8) The sequence of Henny Hughes and Short Circuit paid $10.20.
9) These are the only recommendations in the article.
Had anyone made those eight bets, they would have won all (!) eight, and their $16 in would have produced $106, for a cool profit of $90 or almost six hundred percent. Although I did not make any of those bets and I read those articles mainly for sporting interest, I thought that this was an achievement worthy of note. For a free article provided by the track's own website to predict eight winning bets and a return of over 500 percent is absolutely astounding. Kudos to Jason Blewitt.
Belmont Racetrack on its free website alternates articles between two writers, Eric Donovan and Jason Blewitt. They write assessments of the big races later in the day and although they don't specifically predict races, they will lay out their views on which horse is best and why. Although I have not done any wagering based on this, lately I have noticed that Blewitt is a fabulous analyst.
Today, for July 4, these are the predictions that emerge from his article and how well a bettor would have done if he ventured 2 dollars on each prediction.
1) Roman Ruler is the best horse in the 9th race. He won, paying $6.40.
2) Flower Alley is second best. He came in second, paying $3.10.
3) Proud Accolade is third best. He came in third, paying $3.80.
4) The sequence of Roman Ruler and Flower Alley paid $15.80.
5) The three-horse sequence (known as trifecta) paid $60.50.
6) Henny Hughes is the best horse in the 7th race. He won, paying $3.40.
7) Short Circuit is second best. He came in second, paying $2.80.
8) The sequence of Henny Hughes and Short Circuit paid $10.20.
9) These are the only recommendations in the article.
Had anyone made those eight bets, they would have won all (!) eight, and their $16 in would have produced $106, for a cool profit of $90 or almost six hundred percent. Although I did not make any of those bets and I read those articles mainly for sporting interest, I thought that this was an achievement worthy of note. For a free article provided by the track's own website to predict eight winning bets and a return of over 500 percent is absolutely astounding. Kudos to Jason Blewitt.
Rather Nifty Fourth of July Fact
Thomas Jefferson and John Adams both died on the Fourth of July, 1826. That day happened to be the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Jefferson served as Adams' Vice-President and then defeated him in the subsequent election of 1800.
And you tell me there's no God or that He is an absent landlord.
And you tell me there's no God or that He is an absent landlord.
Sunday, July 03, 2005
Saudi Off Shotgun
The news from Saudi Arabia is that they have killed the Number One honcho of Al Qaida in their kingdom. They have now killed or captured 23 of their list of 26 Most Wanted Terrorists. It's getting so the Post Office hardly has any pictures left and now folks have to look at the drab old diamond walls.
The big question is: how much impact does it have when you chop off the head? Do you just get a more terrible, less temperate hothead in his place?
But all of this reflects badly on our rather pathetic inability to stop Zarqawi from operating with impunity inside a country that we occupy. I expanded somewhat on the matter in my most recent column at Jewish World Review.
The big question is: how much impact does it have when you chop off the head? Do you just get a more terrible, less temperate hothead in his place?
But all of this reflects badly on our rather pathetic inability to stop Zarqawi from operating with impunity inside a country that we occupy. I expanded somewhat on the matter in my most recent column at Jewish World Review.
Pray For Our Lads
It is rather disturbing to see that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan claims to have captured a U.S. soldier from a special-forces unit. Our military has not acknowledged that anyone is missing but that may just mean that this was a top-secret operation with plausible deniability. If so, our boy is currently 'on his own' unless there is some behind-the-scenes negotiation (but with whom?).
Strangely enough, at precisely the same time, some Palestinian groups claim to have captured two Israeli soldiers, while the Israeli government denies that there are soldiers for whom it cannot account. This may also indicate that there was a mission of a clandestine nature. All terribly sad if true.
A flash of memory: when I served in the Israeli Army in 1991 (as a thirty-two-year-old American trying to become acclimated in a new country), my favorite duty was guarding the gate of the base. Many exciting 'nonexistent' missions began with clusters of soldiers buzzing busily near the gate and waiting for their signal to move.
Strangely enough, at precisely the same time, some Palestinian groups claim to have captured two Israeli soldiers, while the Israeli government denies that there are soldiers for whom it cannot account. This may also indicate that there was a mission of a clandestine nature. All terribly sad if true.
A flash of memory: when I served in the Israeli Army in 1991 (as a thirty-two-year-old American trying to become acclimated in a new country), my favorite duty was guarding the gate of the base. Many exciting 'nonexistent' missions began with clusters of soldiers buzzing busily near the gate and waiting for their signal to move.
Saturday, July 02, 2005
Constitution in Exile Debate
Faithful (and generally adversarial) commenter James Elliott has claimed the problem with conservative nominees to the Supreme Court will have to do with their adherence to the Constitution in Exile. I had not heard the term before, perhaps because I followed up law school with a lot of study of religion, so I went looking.
Pioneering legal blog The Volokh Conspiracy has an excellent post by Randy Barnett (a significant legal scholar) all about the Constitution in Exile and whether or not it's a load of crap. You'll have to read to find out.
Hint: There's a good chance that it's cr_p.
Pioneering legal blog The Volokh Conspiracy has an excellent post by Randy Barnett (a significant legal scholar) all about the Constitution in Exile and whether or not it's a load of crap. You'll have to read to find out.
Hint: There's a good chance that it's cr_p.
When Artificial Sweeteners Go Too Far . . .
My family has a particular recipe for tuna salad that I have loved my entire life. The perfect blend contains tuna packed in water, boiled eggs, apples, mayonnaise, and sweet pickles. I assembled the elements a few days ago and lamented a lack of sweet pickles. The wife went to the store and brought some home. I added them to the mix. Something was terribly wrong. I examined the pickle jar. My sweet pickles had been "sweetened" with Splenda. Completely unacceptable. The low carb diet has damaged our culinary dignity.
On a side note, I am a world class consumer of Diet Coke. I think it is the finest beverage known to man. Forgive me, winos. I recently tried a version of Diet Coke made with Splenda. Disaster. For some things, good old aspartame is better. In no case, however, would I like to see pickles sweetened with aspartame, either.
On a side note, I am a world class consumer of Diet Coke. I think it is the finest beverage known to man. Forgive me, winos. I recently tried a version of Diet Coke made with Splenda. Disaster. For some things, good old aspartame is better. In no case, however, would I like to see pickles sweetened with aspartame, either.
Friday, July 01, 2005
Great Interview with Christian Movie Producer
Ralph Winter is the producer of both X-Men films and the upcoming Fantastic Four. He is also a Christian.
Christianity Today has a great interview where you can get to know him.
Something that really impressed me is how well Winter sizes up the film American Beauty and the oft-wrongheaded Christian opposition to that movie.
As the original super blogger Instapundit likes to say, "Read the whole thing."
Christianity Today has a great interview where you can get to know him.
Something that really impressed me is how well Winter sizes up the film American Beauty and the oft-wrongheaded Christian opposition to that movie.
As the original super blogger Instapundit likes to say, "Read the whole thing."
The O'Connor Replacement Issue
1. Compromise -- By my count, Reagan had two nominees that turned out not be very conservative at all. Nixon had one who became the king of abortion rights advocates. Ford had ultra-lib John Paul Stevens. Bush had another total lefty with Souter. I think we can stop the compromise and just appoint one who thinks the right way, judicially speaking.
When Clinton appointed the former chief counsel of the ACLU, we didn't complain much, did we? She sailed on through with nary a remark about extreme leftists.
2. Bill Kristol is CONNECTED -- He told us a week ago that O'Connor would be the one retiring. He's looking pretty potent right about now.
3. The decline of gender politics. Since a bevy of Bush minority and women candidates have been knocked around for ideological reasons, you don't see anybody talking about how the Pres. must appoint a woman. The Dems are far more concerned they get another Souter instead of a conservative African-American lady. The liberal plantation is alive and well.
4. The EXCEPTION: Being Hispanic still matters a lot because of the explosion that demographic. I predict Judge Gonzales is coming on board.
5. If I had my pick, I'd go with Michael McConnell or Alex Kozinski. Heavy duty intellects both and pleasantly non-left (though Kosinzki is more libertarian if I recall).
When Clinton appointed the former chief counsel of the ACLU, we didn't complain much, did we? She sailed on through with nary a remark about extreme leftists.
2. Bill Kristol is CONNECTED -- He told us a week ago that O'Connor would be the one retiring. He's looking pretty potent right about now.
3. The decline of gender politics. Since a bevy of Bush minority and women candidates have been knocked around for ideological reasons, you don't see anybody talking about how the Pres. must appoint a woman. The Dems are far more concerned they get another Souter instead of a conservative African-American lady. The liberal plantation is alive and well.
4. The EXCEPTION: Being Hispanic still matters a lot because of the explosion that demographic. I predict Judge Gonzales is coming on board.
5. If I had my pick, I'd go with Michael McConnell or Alex Kozinski. Heavy duty intellects both and pleasantly non-left (though Kosinzki is more libertarian if I recall).
It Begins
The long-anticipated resignation of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor begins what will surely be a time of great delight for the American press. O'Connor, known as a moderate conservative, was seen as the "swing vote" on the court on issues such as abortion, the death penalty, and church-state separation. In the case of abortion, this description is decidedly inaccurate given that the Court has been 6-3 in favor of retaining Rowe v. Wade since the Clinton-era changes in membership. Nonetheless, it is clear that the Senate confirmation process will in no way resemble the collegial, reasoned debate for which President Bush called in his speech this morning. The characterization of O'Connor as a swing vote ensures that the fight over the nature of her successor will be furious and venemous, barring some miracle.
President Bush has long promised that he will fill federal court and Supreme Court vacancies with judges who "strictly and faithfully interpret the law," and he is certainly not one to shy away from a fight. He will get one, all right.
One interesting angle I should like to point out is that Justice O'Connor's resignation letter states that her retirement is to be "effective upon the nomination and confirmation of my successor." That means that if the Senate receives a nominee from the President and does not vote on the nomination before the Court's next session begins on the first Monday in October, O'Connor will likely return to the bench, prevented by senatorial inaction from retiring and taking care of her ailing husband.
At that point, strong pressure will be on the Senate to bring the matter to a vote, given that Justice O'Connor will have given the President and Senate an entire summer to find a successor. For the pressure to be on the Senate, however, the President will have to nominate someone within the next couple of weeks, and if that person is not confirmed quickly, he or she will be a very public pinata throughout August, a month when nothing else usually happens in Washington, D.C.
That will be a delight for the press, which thrives on controversy, and misery for everybody else.
Also important are racial, ethnic, and gender factors, which have become an increasing consideration in these decisions.
Hence, some speculation. The best course for the President, it would appear, would be to nominate an African-American, Asian, or Hispanic female with no track record on abortion and a strong individual-rights record on economic matters. Such a person would appeal to the Right while blunting some of the potential criticism from the Left. Perhaps nominating someone who has never served as a judge would be a good idea, to reduce the paper trail further. The President should thereafter continually stress that he has acted quickly and that the Senate should do so also, while performing all due diligence, in tribute to the fine public service Justice O'Connor has rendered the nation and in fairness to the nominee. Above all, the President must make clear his resolve to stand behind his nominee until the full Senate votes on confirmation. At that point, the pressure will be on the Senate to decide the matter and allow Justice O'Connor to retire from public life and enjoy her last years with her husband.
If all of this sounds rather cynical, I may perhaps be forgiven given that the federal nomination and confirmation process of the past decade has certainly given ample motivation for such cynicism.
President Bush has long promised that he will fill federal court and Supreme Court vacancies with judges who "strictly and faithfully interpret the law," and he is certainly not one to shy away from a fight. He will get one, all right.
One interesting angle I should like to point out is that Justice O'Connor's resignation letter states that her retirement is to be "effective upon the nomination and confirmation of my successor." That means that if the Senate receives a nominee from the President and does not vote on the nomination before the Court's next session begins on the first Monday in October, O'Connor will likely return to the bench, prevented by senatorial inaction from retiring and taking care of her ailing husband.
At that point, strong pressure will be on the Senate to bring the matter to a vote, given that Justice O'Connor will have given the President and Senate an entire summer to find a successor. For the pressure to be on the Senate, however, the President will have to nominate someone within the next couple of weeks, and if that person is not confirmed quickly, he or she will be a very public pinata throughout August, a month when nothing else usually happens in Washington, D.C.
That will be a delight for the press, which thrives on controversy, and misery for everybody else.
Also important are racial, ethnic, and gender factors, which have become an increasing consideration in these decisions.
Hence, some speculation. The best course for the President, it would appear, would be to nominate an African-American, Asian, or Hispanic female with no track record on abortion and a strong individual-rights record on economic matters. Such a person would appeal to the Right while blunting some of the potential criticism from the Left. Perhaps nominating someone who has never served as a judge would be a good idea, to reduce the paper trail further. The President should thereafter continually stress that he has acted quickly and that the Senate should do so also, while performing all due diligence, in tribute to the fine public service Justice O'Connor has rendered the nation and in fairness to the nominee. Above all, the President must make clear his resolve to stand behind his nominee until the full Senate votes on confirmation. At that point, the pressure will be on the Senate to decide the matter and allow Justice O'Connor to retire from public life and enjoy her last years with her husband.
If all of this sounds rather cynical, I may perhaps be forgiven given that the federal nomination and confirmation process of the past decade has certainly given ample motivation for such cynicism.
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