“If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they’ll kill you.”— O. Wilde

Thursday, December 01, 2022

2022 Elections: State Legislatures, Governorships, and Changes in Control

 

State Legislatures and Governorships: before and after 2022 election

National Conference of State Legislatures, <https://tinyurl.com/yryjp4nz>; and, <https://tinyurl.com/mry5smz>. 

 

50 State Legislatures:         Senate Dems: -9 seats

                                            House Dems: +21 seats

                                            Net: +12 seats

 

50 State Legislatures:          Senate Repubs: +20 seats

                                             House Repubs: +35 seats

                                             Net: +55 seats

 

50 States Legislatures:         Senate Independents/Vacancies/Other: -10 seats

                                             House Independents/Vacancies/Other: -54 seats

                                             Net: -64 seats

 

*Nebraska is unicameral and (formally) non-partisan

**3 seats added across 50 state legislatures

 

Republican net pickup: 43 seats.

 

Dems pickup AZ governorship: AZ government shifts from Repub to Divided control.

Dems pickup MD governorship: MD government shifts from Divided control to Dem control. (But already under effective Dem control: so little potential for any U.S. House redistricting.)

Dems pickup MASS governorship: MASS government shifts from Divided control to Dem control. (But already under effective Dem control: so little potential for U.S. House redistricting.)

Dems pickup both MICH state legislative houses: MICH government shifts from Divided control to Dem control. (Potential for Dem-favored redistricting of U.S. House seats. Post-2022 election: U.S. House from Mich: 6 R / 7 D.)

Dems pickup MINN state house and control of legislature. MINN shifting from Divided control to Dem control. (Potential for Dem-favored redistricting of U.S. House seats. Post-2022 election: U.S. House from Minn: 4 R / 4 D.)

Repubs pickup Nevada governorship: Nevada government shifting from Dem control to Divided control. Only Repub pickup leading to change in control. But no potential for U.S. House redistricting. 

Penn: Dems pickup State House. Control remains Divided.

Control in many state legislative houses remains narrow. So all results remain tentative. Eg: A single state legislative seat--in the NH state house--resulted in a tie. In 3 state Houses, the majority is 1 or 2 seats. (And, the NH state House maybe 2 or 3 seats apart depending on how the single tied seat is finally determined.) In 5 state Senates, the majority is 1 or 2 seats. Redistricting in Michigan and Minnesota based on changes in control could be consequential given the Rs 9-seat majority in the U.S. House.

Seth

Seth Barrett Tillman, 2022 Elections: State Legislatures, Governorships, and Changes in Control, New Reform Club (Dec. 1, 2022, 12:03 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2022/12/2022-elections-state-legislatures.html>; 


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