Our problems remain epistemological.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Control of U.S. House of Representatives Delegations and yet-to-be called House races

 

By my current count, Republicans have a majority on 26 U.S. House of Representatives state delegations. 3 state delegations (Mich., Minn., and Penn.) are evenly split. And 1 state delegation (Iowa) is not yet determined.

 

Michigan is split: 7-to-7;

Minnesota is split: 4-to-4; and,

Pennsylvania is split: 9-to-9.

 

Iowa has 4 seats. 2 seats are now Republican; 1 seat is Democratic. And 1 seat (Iowa-2) is not yet called, with 89% reporting, the Republican leads by 48 votes.

 

10 House seats are not yet called:

CA-21: 99% reporting, Republican leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 1800 votes.

CA-25: 99% reporting, Republican-incumbent leads Democrat by circa 400 votes.

CA-39: 99% reporting, Republican leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 4000 votes.

           [Why hasn’t CA-39 been declared?]

Iowa-2: 89% reporting, the Republican leads by circa 50 votes.

NY-2: 83% reporting, the Republican leads by circa 40,000 votes.

NY-3: 85% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 20,000 votes.

NY-11: 85% reporting, Repub leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 37,000 votes.

NY-18: 79% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 10,000 votes.

NY-19: 85% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 17,000 votes.

NY-22: 84% reporting, Repub leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 23,000 votes.

 

Louisiana-5 will advance to a run-off: top-2 Republicans only. So it will be an R seat.

 

House is now 219 D to 206 R. If the leads above are maintained, the final composition of the House will be: 222 D to 213 R. The Democrats started with 235 seats. So 222, is a drop of 13 seats. This will be the narrowest House majority since 2001.

Seth Barrett Tillman, Control of U.S. House of Representatives Delegations and yet-to-be called House races, New Reform Club (Nov. 19, 2020, 9:03 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2020/11/control-of-us-house-of-representatives.html>; 



10 comments:

Tom Van Dyke said...

NB "By my current count, Republicans have a majority of 26 U.S. House of Representatives state delegations."


If the 2020 election goes to the House, the GOP has enough to elect, since each state gets one vote.

Corrin Strong, Editor said...

If we can ever get an honest vote count in some of these states it will be shown that the Republicans won a majority!

jrcrum said...

CA-39 hasn't been called because the LA County part is still looking for votes - like the last time.

Christopher B said...

I don't know where they're getting their projections but RCP shows some of these races as having results (in italics). They also show one you don't have (NJ-7) as no result.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/house/

CA-21: 99% reporting, Republican leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 1800 votes.

CA-25: 99% reporting, Republican-incumbent leads Democrat by circa 400 votes.

CA-39: 99% reporting, Republican leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 4000 votes.

California District 39
Cisneros 49.4 Kim 50.6 (99%) GOP Pickup


Iowa-2: 89% reporting, the Republican leads by circa 50 votes.

New Jersey District 7
Malinowski 50.6 Kean Jr. 49.4 (98%)


NY-2: 83% reporting, the Republican leads by circa 40,000 votes.

New York District 2
Gordon 42.6 Garbarino 56.4 (78%) GOP Hold


NY-3: 85% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 20,000 votes.

New York District 3
Suozzi 53.1 Santos 46.4 (76%) Dem Hold


NY-11: 85% reporting, Repub leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 37,000 votes.

New York District 11
Rose 42.1 Malliotakis 57.9 (87%) GOP Pickup


NY-18: 79% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 10,000 votes.

New York District 18
Maloney 51.8 Farley 47.3 (81%) Dem Hold


NY-19: 85% reporting, the Democratic-incumbent leads by circa 17,000 votes.

New York District 19
Delgado 51.9 Van De Water 46.1 (83%) Dem Hold


NY-22: 84% reporting, Repub leads Democratic-incumbent by circa 23,000 votes.

jack said...

CA-39 Has been called for Young Kim

Unknown said...

Does it seem strange to anyone else that of the 10 races not called yet all but 1 is in either deeply blue California or New York?

Billy Budd said...

The District 7 race in New Jersey was called on Election Night by ALL the networks, including Fox. Yet here we are 17 days later and it's still uncalled.

That's how you create a narrative out of thin air that the Democrats were going to pick up seats in the House in order to influence the vote in states still voting. You call races that are too close to call or call the race for the eventual loser.

Banzel said...

IA-02. The Republican won by 47 votes. Manual recount started Tuesday.

jack said...

NJ 7 --- Kean conceded

jack said...

CA-21: GOP WINS

CA-25: GOP WINS (Garcia declared victor; Smith has not conceded)

CA-39: GOP WINS

I believe the only uncalled races left are the recount in Iowa, and one NY district where the GOP led but absentees have brought the margin to 200 votes. GOP will win the last seat in Louisiana where there is a run off with two republicans