Trump, American Greatness, and Brexit

       

       “Brexit”—British Exit from the European Union—is scheduled for March 29, 2019. The primary consequence of the divorce is that trade relations between the UK and the EU (and its 27 member states) will no longer be governed by EU law, but will instead be governed by the just-announced proposed “divorce agreement.” The world now knows the contents of the “divorce agreement,” and it appears that a large segment of the UK public and its elected members of Parliament are not content with its terms. Should Parliament fail to ratify the agreement, the UK’s trajectory is towards a so-called “hard” Brexit. A hard Brexit means that future trade between the former couple will be governed by World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, as opposed to a “soft,” frictionless, negotiated Brexit—one which maintains the advantages of reciprocal tariff-free trade that the parties currently enjoy.

            WTO rules are not on hell-on-earth. Such rules guide trade relations among most of the world’s developed nations and most of the world’s population. But the shift from EU rules to WTO rules is likely to impose some genuine costs—particularly in the short term—including knock-on consequences for countries wholly outside the EU. We do not know the magnitude of those consequences, but prudence dictates that all that can be reasonably done should be done to mitigate the immediate, negative consequences of any hard Brexit.

            For that reason, I urge the President of the United States to offer the good offices of the United States to mediate any and all elements of the divorce agreement between the EU and the UK. After all, the President is a deal-maker—and this is likely to be one of the greatest, if not the greatest and most significant negotiation in the history of world trade. Here is an opportunity for American Greatness—for enduring greatness—one not involving war and yet deeply rooted in our history—because after all, the chief business of the American people is … always has been, and God-willing always will be … business. This opportunity transcends the interest of its dominant players—the EU and the UK. It is one of those rare moments, where absent war and the threat war, statesmen can teach that trade is not a zero-sum game and that democratic countries can conduct themselves prudently to the benefit of all.

            With a WTO baseline in consequence of failing to reach any agreement, there are without doubt many mutually beneficial agreements along many fronts that will allow both parties to continue with and to capture many of the benefits that both sides currently enjoy and which might otherwise be lost. A hard Brexit is not the end of the world, but avoiding trade-war-Armageddon is hardly a good benchmark for success. Real success means that the day after Brexit, UK-EU trade continues to grow from its present plateau.

Admittedly, it is likely that one or both parties will not want our friendly intervention. That is true. Men like to be masters in their own home. Still if the President offers our help, and it is turned down, and bad consequences should follow—then those who turned down our offer of American help will have to take responsibility for their failure. Certainly, Chancellor Merkel—outgoing lame duck Chancellor Merkel—is in no position to accept or reject such an offer. In these circumstances, it is just as likely that European politicians in the EU and European politicians in the UK, with an eye on their countries’ future economic prosperity and their next set of domestic elections, would seek to “share” some of that responsibility for their own future if they had an opportunity to do so. In those circumstances, European politicians might run to embrace an American offer of help. It has happened before—that is, Europeans embracing American aid—and it could happen again.

President Trump: it is up to you to start that process.

Seth Barrett Tillman

An American national teaching law in Ireland—an EU member state

Maynooth University Department of Law  

(affiliation is for identification purposes only)

Welcome Instapundit readers! Stay & Have a look around New Reform Club. My co-bloggers do good work.

Seth Barrett Tillman, Trump, American Greatness, and Brexit, New Reform Club (Nov. 30, 2018, 12:01 AM) <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-united-states-and-brexit.html>. 

<https://twitter.com/SethBTillman/status/1068370304362299392>