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Monday, April 24, 2006

Guess Hu?

It occurred to me that it would be worthwhile to expand on a point that I alluded to at the end of my Human Events article, namely that the idea that China will help us to curtail the nuclear adventurism of Iran and North Korea is the starkest self-delusion.

So I wrote an analysis-with-attitude on that subject for tomorrow's The American Spectator.

For an appetizer:

Here is Michael J. Green, senior director for Asia policy through December 2005, waxing pithy on this subject: "In both Iran and North Korea, China has a very serious role to play, and in some ways is the pivot in whether we're successful in dealing with these problems. Hu will be under pressure to say something and to signal, not only domestically here but to those countries, that China's patience is wearing thin."

One hesitates to disabuse the holder of such views, because there is a kind of charm to such loopy delusions. Until we recall that people are actually advancing this rot as a basis for decisions that affect our security. For example, once this serves as the gestalt for international discussion of the Iran crisis, we could get a joint announcement by Hu and Ahmadinejad that Iran has decided to desist from further nuclear development out of respect for the request of China. This would (a) give China a huge diplomatic coup, (b) reinforce the notion that they are world peacemakers, (c) make Iran look reasonable, and (d) worst of all, allow Iran to proceed secretly while we would be hard-pressed to publicly challenge their good faith.


Tlaloc said...

China might very well put pressure on North Korea but, yeah, expecting China to push Iran is pretty darn unlikely.

Marko said...

Very good article in American Spectator. It's nice to see some realism in a major conservative publication for once, instead of the head-in-the-sand utopianism that believes that we can spread democracy over the face of the earth like butter over a homogenous slice of bread.

Mark Pettifor

tbmbuzz said...

The realism in Jay's AmSpec article can just as directly and accurately be applied to that gray-faced KGBer Vladimir Putin!

Kathy Hutchins said...

I suppose it's a testament to Jay's influence over my thought processes that I struggled for three days to find an angle from which I could write about Hu, simply because I wanted to title a post "Hu's on First." Ultimately I decided I knew not what to say about Hu.