Part 2
The U.K.’s
Bradley/Wilder Effect Is Enough To Swing Elections.
The
polls immediately before the election leaned “Remain” or showed a 44%-to-44%
tie, with 12% undecided. The referendum’s result was 52%-to-48% “Leave.” The
idea that the undecideds broke 2-to-1 for “Leave”—against the status quo—is not tenable. That said, the pollsters are
not at fault. The pollsters cannot conduct an accurate poll because voters are unwilling
to tell pollsters how they intend to vote. It is that simple.
Why
are the voters doing this?
The
UK now has its own version of America’s Bradley/Wilder effect: people—decent, ordinary,
hard-working, law-abiding people—are afraid of abuse and reprisals if they
reveal their true political preferences. People are tactically deceiving the
pollsters because the pattern-and-practice of British politics is now:
(i) to demonize
opponents;
(ii) to invade
and shut down their peaceful political meetings and conferences (and then to “justify”
speech suppression as “free speech” or other lawful protest);
(iii) to
threaten and physically assault their party leaders and members;
(iv) to destroy
their political posters and/or to paint over them (and then to call their
vandalism “art”); and,
Some
on the political left are doing this, but it is not just the left. It is nationalist
hooligans in Scotland, and the Tory leader. Eg: Cameron calling UKIP supporters
“fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists.”
Unfortunately,
this behaviour is not entirely new. As one MP warned many years ago:
In the hundreds
upon hundreds of letters I received when I last spoke on th[e] subject [of
immigration] two or three months ago, there was one striking feature which was
largely new and which I find ominous. All Members of Parliament are used to the
typical anonymous correspondent; but what surprised and alarmed me was the high
proportion of ordinary, decent, sensible people, writing a rational and often well-educated
letter, who believed that they had to omit their address because it was
dangerous to have committed themselves to paper to a Member of Parliament
agreeing with the views I had expressed, and that they would risk penalties or
reprisals if they were known to have done so. The sense of being a persecuted
minority which is growing among ordinary English people in the areas of the
country which are affected [by mass immigration] is something that those
without direct experience can hardly imagine.
Address to the
Annual General Meeting of the West Midlands Area Conservative Political Centre
(Birmingham, Midland Hotel 1968). It goes without saying that, when the
author of those words made that statement, he was called—wait for it—a racist.
If
a society permits those who engage in wilful violence and those that command
the police & the revenue office to drive normal political expression
underground, then that society will not have normal political expression. One consequence of the lack of normal
political expression is that every poll will lack validity.*
* Mrs T takes this claim one step further:
there is no good reason to believe the frequently asserted claim that Britain’s
“Youth” voted “Remain” (that is, voted “Remain” more than any other
demographic). Who is more likely to be shamed into hiding their political
preferences? Who is more likely subject to peer pressure?
Seth
My most recent prior post: Seth Barrett
Tillman, Reflections on the Revolution in
the UK: Part 1: It Is All Cameron’s Fault, The New Reform Club (June 30, 2016, 3:40 AM).
My other Brexit posts include:
Seth Barrett Tillman, Dewey beats Truman ... Dewey beats Truman ... Dewey beats Truman ..., The New Reform Club (June 24, 2016, 10:32 AM);
2 comments:
The Leftist Kulturkampf thugs of various political. media and physical stripes used by transnational progressive elites to enforce political correctness have poisoned the well for opinion polls.
This logarithmically worse than the Bradley Effect, because the consequences for individuals in the general public are that much more dire.
Not answering pollsters is survival for "little people."
Phone/internet polling is dead as far as accuracy is concerned, regards anything involving the Kulturkampf.
Same thing possibly going on in USA with Trump. To admit merely thinking about him gets one heaped with scorn and worse, and people are shutting up. This intimdation may work because his campaign has to raise a LOT of money and that is very hard to do if people think you're goimng to lose, so it could become self-fulfilling. We'll see...
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