Everything you say can and will be used against you.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Academics and Brexit

An American academic sent me the following e-mail:

“Actually what people are saying is something like the following:

A majority of us wanted Brexit. We have discovered, however, that within that majority there is no agreement on how Brexit should be done. Indeed, we are learning that a strong possibility exists that a majority prefers remain to any particular manifestation of Brexit (i.e., imagine three different versions of Brexit). Remain beats all three in a head to head vote. Given we have discovered the strong probability that any particular manifestation of Brexit is likely to have even less support than remain, revisiting Brexit seems a good idea.

Tillman wrote back as follows:

“If only we had honest and accurate polls, and if only people took polls as seriously as they do actual voting, and if all these things and more were true, you’d have a point, except the polls and pollsters thought Brexit would lose, thought Hillary would win, and thought Netanyahu in trouble. But none of it was true. None of it.

I also note that you don’t actually link to any polls that purportedly support what you are saying in your e-mail.

Seth

PS to NRC Readers: notice my interlocutor’s use of “actually” and “imagine” as if his points were difficult or novel ideas and concepts.

PPS: I have yet to receive a link to any such head-to-head polls, or even any polls showing a majority wants a second vote.


Seth Barrett Tillman, Academics and Brexit, New Reform Club (Apr. 13, 2019, 16:25 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/04/academics-and-brexit.html>. 



7 comments:

SDN said...

Just an addendum on polls: People are realizing there is no such thing as an anonymous poll. Every poll has to keep a list of the numbers they have called if for no other reason than to make sure they don't re-poll them too soon. They also have to have some idea of the demographics of the person called and their answers.

In the age of massive hacks, people realize that this data cannot be guaranteed to remain confidential.

In the age of Antifa, people realize that if they give the "wrong" answer, some chav may decide to target them, their employers, their families, etc. for "wronthink". Safer to lie; safest of all not to pick up the phone.

Bastiat said...

The question still hangs: why no clear and unapologetic exit by at least a few?

The UK is famous for perfecting the parliamentary system. SO why is the 'exit' such a radioactive issue for the supposed best of the best?

Paintings By J. Hershy Worch said...

'Actually', 'Clearly' and 'Indeed' are what Pratchett calls 'wallpaper-words' for obscuring one's lack of evidence, support or, indeed, facts...

Anonymous said...

Arrow's impossibility theorem strikes again. Imagine that ...

Niall Kilmartin said...

Various polls are linked to in Guido Fawkes' blog. This one notes an astonishingly dishonest use of a press body to pretend the opposite.

It will be obvious to you that if 'Democrat' were contrasted with several variants of Republicanism then 'Democrat' would beat any one variant.

Brexit is the UK's equivalent of Trump. Not allowing it to go forward is the UK's equivalent of the collusion narrative, and other such attempts to rule that just because Trump won an election does not mean he should be president.

AUTOMATED TELLER (BLANK ATM CARD) said...

INSTEAD OF GETTING A LOAN,,  I GOT SOMETHING NEW
Get $5,500 USD every day, for six months!

See how it works
Do you know you can hack into any ATM machine with a hacked ATM card??
Make up you mind before applying, straight deal...

Order for a blank ATM card now and get millions within a week!: contact us
via email address::{Automatictellers@gmail.com}

We have specially programmed ATM cards that  can be use to hack ATM
machines, the ATM cards can be used to withdraw at the ATM or swipe, at
stores and POS. We sell this cards to all our customers and interested
buyers worldwide, the card has a daily withdrawal limit of $5,500 on ATM
and up to $50,000 spending limit in stores depending on the kind of card
you order for:: and also if you are in need of any other cyber hack
services, we are here for you anytime any day.

Here is our price lists for the ATM CARDS:

Cards that withdraw $5,500 per day costs $200 USD
Cards that withdraw $10,000 per day costs $850 USD
Cards that withdraw $35,000 per day costs $2,200 USD
Cards that withdraw $50,000 per day costs $5,500 USD
Cards that withdraw $100,000 per day costs $8,500 USD

make up your mind before applying, straight deal!!!

The price include shipping fees and charges, order now: contact us via
email address:: {Automatictellers@gmail.com}

Visit our Website for more Info: automatictellers.webs.com
®

Nancy May said...

Hey everyone!
Today I come to you with so much excitement!
I have been married & barren for 5years i had no child. i have never been pregnant i was a subject of laughter from my Friends & neighbors, i almost lost my marriage because of this issue . i was so confused that i did not know what to do until i came across this great Dr Ahmed online and i contacted him at once i was scared weather it was going to work because i never believed things like this before, so i decided to give it a try and i did all what Dr Ahmed asked of me and today to my greatest surprise i took in the first time and i gave birth to a bouncing baby boy and now my marriage that was about crashing before is now restored. my husband now love and want me better, Am so happy for everything that have been happening my life since i met this Dr Ahmed.
I want to tell all the women out there who have a similar situation like that the world is not over YET they should dry up their tears and contact this great man and their problem will be gone or are you also having other problems you can also contact Dr Ahmed, here is how you can contact him Ahmedutimate@gmail.com or Contact him via his whats-app number +2348160153829.
Thanks