Everything you say can and will be used against you.

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Academics and Brexit

An American academic sent me the following e-mail:

“Actually what people are saying is something like the following:

A majority of us wanted Brexit. We have discovered, however, that within that majority there is no agreement on how Brexit should be done. Indeed, we are learning that a strong possibility exists that a majority prefers remain to any particular manifestation of Brexit (i.e., imagine three different versions of Brexit). Remain beats all three in a head to head vote. Given we have discovered the strong probability that any particular manifestation of Brexit is likely to have even less support than remain, revisiting Brexit seems a good idea.

Tillman wrote back as follows:

“If only we had honest and accurate polls, and if only people took polls as seriously as they do actual voting, and if all these things and more were true, you’d have a point, except the polls and pollsters thought Brexit would lose, thought Hillary would win, and thought Netanyahu in trouble. But none of it was true. None of it.

I also note that you don’t actually link to any polls that purportedly support what you are saying in your e-mail.


PS to NRC Readers: notice my interlocutor’s use of “actually” and “imagine” as if his points were difficult or novel ideas and concepts.

PPS: I have yet to receive a link to any such head-to-head polls, or even any polls showing a majority wants a second vote.

Seth Barrett Tillman, Academics and Brexit, New Reform Club (Apr. 13, 2019, 16:25 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/04/academics-and-brexit.html>. 


SDN said...

Just an addendum on polls: People are realizing there is no such thing as an anonymous poll. Every poll has to keep a list of the numbers they have called if for no other reason than to make sure they don't re-poll them too soon. They also have to have some idea of the demographics of the person called and their answers.

In the age of massive hacks, people realize that this data cannot be guaranteed to remain confidential.

In the age of Antifa, people realize that if they give the "wrong" answer, some chav may decide to target them, their employers, their families, etc. for "wronthink". Safer to lie; safest of all not to pick up the phone.

Bastiat said...

The question still hangs: why no clear and unapologetic exit by at least a few?

The UK is famous for perfecting the parliamentary system. SO why is the 'exit' such a radioactive issue for the supposed best of the best?

Paintings By J. Hershy Worch said...

'Actually', 'Clearly' and 'Indeed' are what Pratchett calls 'wallpaper-words' for obscuring one's lack of evidence, support or, indeed, facts...

Anonymous said...

Arrow's impossibility theorem strikes again. Imagine that ...

Niall Kilmartin said...

Various polls are linked to in Guido Fawkes' blog. This one notes an astonishingly dishonest use of a press body to pretend the opposite.

It will be obvious to you that if 'Democrat' were contrasted with several variants of Republicanism then 'Democrat' would beat any one variant.

Brexit is the UK's equivalent of Trump. Not allowing it to go forward is the UK's equivalent of the collusion narrative, and other such attempts to rule that just because Trump won an election does not mean he should be president.


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