Shai: DO NOT FOUL, DO NOT COME NEAR

 

What Happened in the States?: State Legislatures and Governorships (UPDATED)

 

 

Some results are still trickling in. And some state legislative races are not yet final—subject to final tally, recount, and judicial review. But such races are the exception. Most results are in. You can find results reported here: 

BEFORE NOVEMBER 2024 ELECTION: 

<https://documents.ncsl.org/wwwncsl/About-State-Legislatures/Legis_Control_2024_10-18-24_Adam%20Kuckuk.pdf> (dated 18-Oct-2024);

AFTER NOVEMBER 2024 ELECTION: 

<https://documents.ncsl.org/wwwncsl/Elections/LegisControl_2024_Post%20Election_Prelim.pdf> (dated 8-Nov-2024); 

 

Before the 2024 election: the partisan split among governors was 27R/23D. There were 11 governor’s races, and no changes in partisan control. Thus the split remained 27R/23D.

 

The partisan composition of the state legislative houses saw some change. The analysis here looks to the 49 states with bicameral chambers, and excludes Nebraska’s unicameral non-partisan chamber. At play are 98 chamber (49 * 2) and some 7,386 state legislative seats.

 

Prior to the election, in terms of legislative seats, the composition was:

 

4020 Rs        3250 Ds        116 other (other parties, independents, and vacancies)

 

After the November 5, 2024 election, the composition appears to be:

 

          4081 Rs        3237 Ds        68 other (other parties, independents, and vacancies)

 

That’s a small shift, 61 seats, to the Rs—from the D column and from the other column. The Rs gained 14 state senate seats and 47 state house seats. The Rs continue to have about 55% of all state legislative seats nationally. Most state legislative chambers saw 5 or fewer seats change from R to D or D to R. Notable exceptions beyond 5 seats include:

• Maine House—Rs gain 7 seats, and shift from D control to divided control (75D, 74R, 2 other);
• Montana House—Ds gain 9 seats, but Rs continue to control; 
• New Hampshire House—Rs gain 16 seats, and Rs continue to control; 
• Vermont Senate—Rs gain 6 seats, but Ds continue to control; 
• Vermont House—Rs gain 22 seats, but Ds continue to control; 
• Wisconsin Senate—Ds gain 6 seats, but Rs continue to control (with a 1-seat majority); and,
• Wisconsin House—Ds gain 11 seats, but Rs continue to control.

All the most significant R gains were in legislative chambers in New England—i.e., Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. 

 

In terms of chambers, prior to the election, the composition was:

 

57 majority-R chambers     41 majority-D chambers     0 tie-or-no-majority chambers

 

After the November 5, 2024 election, the composition appears to be:

 

57 majority-R chambers     38 majority-D chambers     3 tie-or-no-majority chambers

 

What chambers changed?

• Alaska House* shift from R-control to divided control (20R, 15D, 5 other); 
• Maine House shift from D control to divided control (75D, 74R, 2 other);
• Michigan House shift from D-control to R-control; and, 
• Minnesota House** shift from from D-control to D-R tie (67-to-67). 

The Republicans’ (Rs’) picking up one state legislative chamber (MICHIGAN HOUSE) along with loss of one state legislative chamber to divided control (ALASKA HOUSE) only, at best, shows moderate success ... unless one takes for granted that the Rs started this election at, or nearly at their, “natural” political peak leaving little room for improvement by gaining seats or control of chambers. By contrast, the Ds arguably did worse—losing control of 3 state legislative chambers (MAINE HOUSE, MICHIGAN HOUSE, and MINNESOTA HOUSE). The loss of the MINNESOTA HOUSE with Walz on the national ticket is hardly a sign of political success by the Ds. 

And in the territories? Guam’s unicameral legislature shifted from D-control to R-control (from 9D-to-6R to 7D-to-8R). Puerto Rico’s two legislative chambers both flipped from the PDP to the NPP—the latter is more aligned with the national Republican Party than is the former. 

See generally Wendy Underhill, ‘Election Outcomes: Status Quo in the States Despite GOP Gains in DC,’ National Conference of State Legislatures (Nov. 8, 2024), <https://www.ncsl.org/state-legislatures-news/details/election-outcomes-status-quo-in-the-states-despite-gop-gains-in-dc>;

 

Seth Barrett Tillman, ‘What Happened in the States?: State Legislatures and Governorships (UPDATED),’ New Reform Club (Nov. 10, 2024, 3:21 AM) (updated Nov. 11, 2024), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2024/11/what-happened-in-states-state.html>; 

*Alaska results are not yet final—including initial counts and subsequent counts under ranked choice voting, recounts, judicial review, etc. Furthermore, ranked choice voting extends the process and time period to count votes.

**It could be argued that the Minnesota Senate flipped from divided control (33D-to-33R, with 1 vacancy) to D (official DFL party) control (34D-to-33R). The National Conference of State Legislatures does not classify this as a change of control, perhaps because, prior to the November 2024 election, the Ds (DFLs) had already organized the chamber, and also because, prior to the November 2024 election, the Ds (DFLs) had already chosen a D (DFL) president, pro tempore, and majority leader. 

Trump-45 v. Biden: the Federal Judicial Appointments Record

 

Federal Judicial Appointments Record

TRUMP-45           BIDEN

Supreme Court of the U.S.:           3                            1

U.S. Courts of Appeals:                54                          44

U.S. District Courts:                    174                         166

U.S. Court of Int’l Trade:             3                            2

Article I Specialty Courts:           26                          16

Article IV Territorial Courts:         1                            1

 

Total:                                          261                         230

 

Currently, it appears that Trump-45 made more federal judicial appointments of every type than Biden made. (Except for Article IV Territorial Courts—where Trump and Biden both made a single appointment.) And, at this juncture, there are 67 federal judicial vacancies to Article III courts, with 28 Biden nominees’ confirmations pending before the U.S. Senate. See <https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/current-judicial-vacancies>, and, <https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/future-judicial-vacancies>. 

The lame duck U.S. Senate and Biden, the lame duck U.S. President, might now push forward, and so it is possible that over the course of the next two months Biden’s record might improve. But even if all 28 outstanding Biden nominees are confirmed and appointed, Biden will still fail to make as many judicial appointments as Trump had made. 

(source: Wikipedia)

 

Seth Barrett Tillman, ‘Trump-45 v. Biden: the Federal Judicial Appointments Record,’ New Reform Club (Nov. 7, 2024, 6:56 AM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2024/11/trump-45-v-biden-federal-judicial.html>;

 

Note: the U.S. Court of International Trade is an Article III court.

 

This Time, Trump Stops The Steal

As they say in North Dallas Forty, seeing through the game is not the same as winning the game. If there was one, I think The Steal in 2020 was thousands of little nods and winks and rule-bendings by Democrat election officials, not some grand conspiracy. Trump and the GOP did much better this time, setting up a TEAM that was prepared for all chicanery. He'll finish with about the same number of votes as 2020, and Kamala will have got 10 million less than Biden. So yes, Biden might have got millions of fake or invalid votes, and better preparation by the GOP scared the Dems off from repeating The Steal. But we will never know. I never bought into The Steal. In the least Trump neither headed it off or proved it. Like when he said McCain wasn't a hero just for getting his plane shot down and getting captured, anyone who gets cheated is still a loser. Politics is a dirty game and he was too lazy and vain to prevent it. But not this time.