Tillman Interview

Demography—it’s an important issue. It may very well be the defining issue of our time. The demographic implosion of the Western world—people just aren’t having kids.

I remember when PD James’ novel, Children of Men, came out: we laughed. It was sci-fi, a dystopian future with no real implications, but the truth is we are now living in such a culture.

The whole social welfare system—especially Social Security in the U.S.—was built on the presumption there would be a pyramid in terms of workers—fewer people going into retirement than coming into the working world.

The pensions (or quasi-pensions) that the state created would be supported by an ever growing population. That presumption has been proved wrong. That will put a strain on or perhaps cause the collapse of the budgets of Western governments or the implosion of many local authorities. There just aren’t the taxpayers.

What the governments are quietly doing is embracing open immigration to bring new people in to replace the people that they thought they’d have, but don’t have. I think it’s the driving force why the elites want so much immigration. It’s not that they care about the newcomers or dislike their own citizens, it’s that they don’t have enough people.

That’s one reason why we’re not seeing children of prominent politicians. Politicians are reflecting wider society, which is not to have children. One of the reasons so many women are actively getting IVF and other procedures is because they’re waiting late in life.

Just a few decades ago, by the time women were 40, the kids were grown up. Now people are delaying having children until the woman is 40. But it is difficult to conceive then and the state puts up the cost of the IVF and they have only one kid. The idea of having two children—and being at replacement level—or three or four children—is lost on wider society.

There are even greater incentives on politicians: they get no credit for having children in that whatever fault of the child is ascribed to the parent. That can hurt them politically. The only way to get away with having children as a politician is to have an infant—so the child can’t screw up.

That’s why Cameron got away with it: his children were really young. God forbid you have a kid who uses marijuana or commits a crime: it’s the end of your career. I’m not surprised in the strong competition for political office, the advantage goes to the person without children. One of the interesting things about Trump is he has got a lot of kids. That didn’t hurt him at all with the sort of people who live in the key states he was trying to win.

Not having children is reflecting a large part of wider society delaying marriage, delaying having children, or not having children at all or putting it off until you’re infertile. It’s not where Western society was even a short time ago.

Seth

Seth Barrett Tillman, Tillman Interview, New Reform Club (Sept. 16, 2018, 1:49 PM), https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2018/09/tillman-interview.html