“This life is slow suicide, unless you read.”Herman Wouk

Thursday, September 05, 2019

Trump’s Good & Bad Luck




Blumenthal v. Trump started in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (D.D.C.). It was heard by Judge Sullivan. Judge Sullivan has a good reputation as a straight shooter. He was appointed to the local or territorial courts of the District of Columbia by Republican (R) presidents (i.e., Reagan, and Bush I). Afterwards, he was appointed to the D.D.C. by a Democratic (D) president (i.e., Clinton). For the sake of argument, let’s simplify the situation and call him a D appointee. In Blumenthal v. Trump, at the motion to dismiss stage, Judge Sullivan ruled for the plaintiffs. But the Department of Justice (DOJ) sought an interlocutory appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.

The D.C. Circuit has 17 judges: 8 Ds and 9 Rs.* The panel that heard the DOJ’s motion for interlocutory review was composed of 3 Ds! What is the probability of that? 8/17 * 7/16 * 6/15 = 8%. That was, perhaps, Trump’s bad luck. But he prevailed anyway. And the case is now out of the hands of Judge Sullivan, and the D.C. Circuit will decide the case on the merits.

Here is what is interesting.

It appears that the original panel of 3 Ds, having determined that the court of appeals should hear the case as an interlocutory appeal, has also decided not to hear the appeal on the merits. So a new panel of 3 judges will be composed (at random) by the D.C. Circuit’s clerk’s office. I am not sure why the panel has decided not to retain the case on the merits going forward. But assuming a new panel will be composed: What is the probability that there will be either 2 Rs and 1 D, or 3 Rs on the panel? 54%. From Trump’s point of view, a majority of Rs on the panel is an improvement. And if the new panel were composed of D.C. Circuit judges exclusive of the members of the original panel, then the odds go up considerably above 54% for a panel composed either of 2 Rs and 1 D, or 3 Rs.**

What happens after the panel decides the merits? Then the non-prevailing party may apply for en banc review from the entire D.C. Circuit. Here the odds favor the plaintiffs. Why? The full court is composed of 9 Rs and 8 Ds, but that includes 6 judges with senior status. Senior judges do not participate in en banc review. The en banc court has 7 Ds and 4 Rs: a strong D majority. So anything Trump might gain from the next 3-judge panel, he might lose during en banc review … and then, perhaps, he might get it back again at the U.S. Supreme Court, which (as all know) is divided between 5 Rs and 4 Ds. But don’t tell Chief Justice Roberts—he won’t believe you!

Seth

* I am counting Judge Judith W. Rogers as a D appointee. She was appointed to the D.C. Circuit by President Clinton. That said, Judge Rogers was appointed to the local or territorial courts of the District of Columbia by President Reagan.

** The probability of a panel with 2 Ds and 1 R, or 3Ds is 45%. 

Seth Barrett Tillman, Trump’s Good & Bad Luck, New Reform Club (Sept. 5, 2019, 12:42 PM), <https://reformclub.blogspot.com/2019/09/trumps-good-bad-luck.html>. 





6 comments:

Amaya Nicole said...

HOW I GOT MY EX LOVER BACK WITH THE HELP OF A REAL AND GENUINE LOVE SPELL CASTER DR PETER. CONTACT ON WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649

Good day ladies and gentle men, MY NAME IS AMAYA NYCOLE from UNITED STATE i want to give thanks to the great Dr Peter for bringing back my lover in a twinkle of an eye after been deceived by so many fake spell casters  online who claim to be spell casters. But with the help of Dr Peter my prayers came through by him bringing back my ex lover to me within 24 hours which other spell casters could not do. I want to say a big thank you to Dr Peter for bringing back my happiness to me and if there is anybody who is in need of help i will advice you to contact Dr Peter for help as soon as possible because he will surely restore your lost joy.CONTACT THIS GREAT DR PETER TODAY FOR ANY KIND OF PROBLEM SOLUTION AND GET YOUR PROBELEM SOLVED 1OO% GUARANTEED AND ASSURED THANK YOU DR PETER. His private email:  MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@GMAIL.COM
MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST@YAHOO.COM
 CALL/WHATSAPP +1(321)754-0649 
my youtube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV04v3z2GA0 
His websites: http://MAGNIFICENTSPELLCAST.WEBSITE2.ME 

Jennifer Benson said...

I can't say Doctor Afrid is the almighty GOD but he's a GOD on earth. Why i said that is because he helped me to get back my husband that divorced me 3 years back living me hopeless with nothing. I searched for local helps around but nothing good showed up. So, i decided to go into the internet in search of help and i discovered that Doctor Afrid was been praised globally for his good works. I decided to get in touch with him for assistance and he prepared a spell for me and assured me that my husband will come back to me within 2 day i was skeptical about it but i had no choice than to believe in his words. To my greatest surprise, my husband called me and started pleading that he was coming back home today, we are living as one big happy family again.Get in touch with him now if you need any help like getting your love ones back, spell to get pregnant, spell to stop divorce, spell to cure any kind of diseases like Aids, HIV, Anemia, Cancer, E.T.C. Email him now on; drafridherbalhome@gmail.com OR Website: http://drafridherbalhome.webs.com OR what'sapp on +2349057260738.

jon helen said...

EFFECTIVE AND POWERFUL LOVE SPELL,LOTTERY SPELL,MONEY SPELL CASTER DR GBOJIE  +2349066410185

What a miracle to have my ex back  and i need to share this great testimony... I just want to say thanks Dr gbojie for taking time to help me cast the spell that {now my husband},who suddenly lost interest in me after six month of engagement,but today we are married and we are more happier than never before, I am really short of words and joyful, and i don't know how much to my appreciation to you doctor gbojie you are a God sent to restore broken relationship.he deeply enjoy helping people achieve their desires, find true love,getting their ex lovers back,stop abusive relationships,find success,attract happiness,find soul mates and more,contact him today. and let him show you the wonders and amazement of his Love Spell System. He deliver results at his best in real spell casting,email him for help on gbojiespiritualtemple@gmail.com or gbojiespiritualtemple@yahoo.com you can also call him on +2349066410185  website : http://gbojiespiritualtemple.website2.me/  

Natasha Wanderly said...

Spell to Win Your Man Back from Another Woman! Dr.Unity has helped thousands of women get their Ex lover back" I'm Natasha Wanderly form USA. After 12years of marriage, me and my husband has been into one quarrel or the other until he finally left me and moved to California to be with another woman. I felt my life was over and my kids thought they would never see their father again. i tried to be strong just for the kids but i could not control the pains that torments my heart, my heart was filled with sorrows and pains because i was really in love with my husband. Every day and night i think of him and always wish he could come back to me, I was really worried and i needed help, so i searched for help online and I came across a website that suggested that Dr Unity can help get ex back fast. So, I felt I should give him a try. I contacted him and he told me what to do and i did it then he did a Love spell for me. 11hours later, my husband really called me and told me that he miss me and the kids so much, So Amazing!! So that was how he came back that same day,with lots of love and joy,and he apologized for his mistake,and for the pain he caused me and the kids. Then from that day,our Marriage was now stronger than how it were before, All thanks to Dr Unity. he is so powerful and i decided to share my story on the internet that Dr.Unity is real spell caster who i will always pray to live long to help his children in the time of trouble, if you are here and you need your ex lover back or save your marriage fast. Do not cry anymore, contact Dr.Unity now. Here’s his contact,Email him at: Unityspelltemple@gmail.com or Call/WhatsApp him +2348055361568 , website:https://unityspelltemples.blogspot.com ,your kindness will never be forgotten.

FLORES said...

I will forever be indebted to the great Doctor TAKUTA for fixing my broken marriage after my husband left me for his mistress for 3 months. I never believed in spells until my friend introduced me to him. At first, I was skeptical about him because I heard a lots about false spell casters but I put my doubts behind me for i was desperate to get my husband back and I did according to what he instructed me to do. Now my husband is back just within 48 hours of contacting him. I'm living happily with my husband again after 6 months of divorce and I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in money spells, lottery spells, sickness spells E.T.C. Get connected with Doctor Takuta now, his email is takutaspellalter@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +27788634102

FLORES said...


I will forever be indebted to the great Doctor TAKUTA for fixing my broken marriage after my husband left me for his mistress for 3 months. I never believed in spells until my friend introduced me to him. At first, I was skeptical about him because I heard a lots about false spell casters but I put my doubts behind me for i was desperate to get my husband back and I did according to what he instructed me to do. Now my husband is back just within 48 hours of contacting him. I'm living happily with my husband again after 6 months of divorce and I will not rest till he's known all over the world. He's also specialize in money spells, lottery spells, sickness spells E.T.C. Get connected with Doctor Takuta now, his email is takutaspellalter@gmail.com or WhatsApp on +27788634102