Mensch tracht, und Gott lacht

Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Score One for Baker's Political Prognostication Powers

I said Alito would be confirmed by a comfortable margin with no filibuster.

Correct.

I also said it is the next vacant spot on the court, not O'Connor's seat, that will provoke the battle royale. With O'Connor's retirement and replacement you get four strong conservative votes, not five. Our side lost one when White was replaced by Ginsburg. A pretty serious swing, but the GOP wasn't complaining, now were they?

The next seat will make the Bork battle look like a party provided a Republican is doing the nominating. If not, the GOP will sit politely by while the Democrats appoint pretty much whoever they wish, AS USUAL.

3 comments:

Hunter Baker said...

I think Kennedy is basically Harry Blackmun all over again.

On the other question T raises, I think he has confused the lower courts with the Supreme Court, to which I was clearly and obviously referring. Thus, the lack of "revisionism."

Hunter Baker said...

Actually, T, you accused me of revisionism, which would indicate a mistake of history (although revisionism as actually means to correct history). Since I was very clearly speaking historically of the Supreme Court then it would not be "nuanced" to not be speaking of other judicial nominations. It would simply be to speak of what I was specifically speaking about.

Improve your aim or get off the court.

Ed Darrell said...

Hmmm. 42 votes against. A serious filibuster would have beaten him.

It seems to me that gloating is reserved for those who can't, or don't, count.